EIA：今明两年美国天然气消费量将继续下降

中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月19日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，继2020年天然气消费量下降之后，2021年和2022年美国天然气消费总量下降。该机构在4月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，2020年的消费量比2019年创下的851亿立方英尺/日的历史高位低了19亿立方英尺/日。由于COVID-19导致的经济放缓以及气温较低的取暖需求，总消费量下降。尽管EIA预计2021年和2022年天然气消费量将继续下降，但行业天然气消费量的变化趋势与2020年不同。

EIA预测，在2020年成为唯一一个增加天然气消费量的行业之后，电力行业将成为2021年唯一减少天然气消费量的行业。2019年和2020年的天然气价格处于历史低位，使得天然气在发电方面比煤炭更具竞争力。然而，由于预测天然气价格将更高，2021年和2022年将有更多的可再生能源产能上线，EIA预计更多的发电将来自煤炭和可再生能源，而更少的发电将来自天然气。

从2019年到2020年，住宅和商业天然气消费量合计下降了21亿立方英尺/日，主要原因是气候变暖和COVID-19疫情。气候变暖（导致2020年供暖度日（HDDs）比2019年减少9%）减少了对天然气空间供暖的需求。根据国家海洋和大气管理局的预测，EIA预计2021年HDDs将增长5%，2022年将增长1%。EIA还预计，2021年居民和商业天然气消费量将增加，2022年将略有下降。

王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

EIA: US natural gas consumption to continue decreasing in 2021, 2022

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts decreased total US natural gas consumption in 2021 and 2022 following a decline in 2020. Consumption in 2020 was 1.9 bcfd lower than the all-time high of 85.1 bcfd set in 2019, the agency said in its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Total consumption declined as a result of the economic slowdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and lower heating demand amid milder temperatures. Although EIA expects natural gas consumption to continue to fall in 2021 and 2022, changes in sector-level natural gas consumption show different trends than in 2020.

Electric power will be the only sector that will consume less natural gas in 2021 after being the only sector to increase its natural gas consumption in 2020, EIA forecasts. Natural gas prices in 2019 and 2020 were historically low, making natural gas more competitive with coal for generating electric power. However, because forecast natural gas prices will be higher and more renewable capacity will come online in 2021 and 2022, EIA expects more electricity generation will come from coal and renewables and less from natural gas.

Residential and commercial natural gas consumption fell by a combined 2.1 bcfd from 2019 to 2020 primarily because of warmer weather and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The warmer weather (which resulted in 9% fewer heating degree days (HDDs) in 2020 than in 2019) reduced demand for natural gas space heating. Based on forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, EIA expects HDDs will increase by 5% in 2021 and by 1% in 2022. EIA also expects residential and commercial natural gas consumption will increase in 2021 and then decrease slightly in 2022.