高盛预计运输燃料需求将在2026年达到峰值

　　据美国彭博新闻社2021年4月16日报道，高盛集团日前也加入了呼吁全球石油需求尽早见顶的预测者的行列。

　　这家国际领先的投资银行将运输部门的燃油需求峰值预测提前一年至2026年(如果不是更早的话)，主要原因是因为电动汽车的加速采用。由于航空燃料和石化产品的缘故，本世纪初的原油总消费量将继续增长，但到2025年以后，原油消费量将以“乏力”的速度增长。

　　高盛集团是最新一家重新评估石油需求增长终结的公司。其中最激进的呼声来自英国石油公司(BP )。BP去年说，全球石油需求增长的时代可能已经结束，而国际能源署(IEA)的观点则比BP更为保守，认为全球石油需求增长将在2030年左右进入平稳期。

　　最近，伍德麦肯兹警告称，石油公司如果没有为加速的能源转型做好准备，将面临“严重”风险。如果各国政府按照《巴黎气候协定》积极削减温室气体排放，全球石油消费量最早将在2023年开始下降

　　包括Nikhil Bhandari和Damien Courvalin在内的高盛集团分析师在一份报告中表示，“推动能效提高和减排的政府政策对道路运输燃料需求的影响最大。”“在经济增长和消费增长(尤其是在新兴市场)的推动下，石化产品将成为石油需求的新的基本负荷。”

　　李峻 编译自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman projects transportation fuel demand will peak in 2026

　　Add Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to the list of forecasters calling for oil demand to peak sooner rather than later.

　　The bank brought forward its forecast for peak oil demand in the transportation sector by one year to 2026, if not sooner, largely due to the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. Overall crude consumption will keep expanding this decade due to jet fuel and petrochemicals, but growth will be at an “anemic” pace past 2025.

　　Goldman is the latest to reevaluate what the end of demand growth will look like for oil. Among the most aggressive calls is that from BP Plc, which said last year that the era of oil demand growth may already be over, while the International Energy Agency has taken a more conservative view than BP, seeing demand plateau from around 2030.

　　Most recently, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. warned of the “severe” risks for oil companies not preparing for an accelerated energy transition. If governments move aggressively to cut greenhouse emissions in line with the Paris Climate Accord, oil consumption would start to decline as early as 2023

　　“Government policies driving higher efficiency gains and lower emissions have had the strongest bearing on road transport demand,” Goldman analysts including Nikhil Bhandari and Damien Courvalin said in a report. “Petrochemicals will become the new baseload for oil demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption, especially in emerging markets.”