IEA：石油告别供应过剩状态

　　据国际商业时报4月14日报道，国际能源署（IEA）周三表示，随着世界经济开始从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏，加上欧佩克及其盟友限制产量，全球石油市场的供应过剩状况正在缓解。

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)上调了今年全球经济增长预期后，IEA也上调了对石油需求复苏的预期。并表示:“市场前景的改善，加上更强劲的即时指标，促使我们上调了2021年全球石油需求增长预期。”

　　IEA预计，继去年下降870万桶/天之后，全球石油需求将增加570万桶/天，至9670万桶/天。欧佩克于周二，将2021年的需求预期上调至每日9650万桶。

　　去年，由于许多国家为了减缓疫情的传播而关闭了大量经济，石油需求受到重创。这导致了供应过剩，但包括重量级产油国俄罗斯在内的欧佩克+国家选择大幅减产，以应对油价下跌。要知道，油价曾一度暴跌至负值。

　　不过，这种供过于求的局面似乎已经改变。

　　IEA表示，初步数据显示，经合组织石油库存在连续7个月下降后，3月份基本保持稳定，正接近5年平均水平。

　　自今年初以来，欧佩克+一直在缓慢增加产量，并在4月初表示，面对预期的需求增长，它将在未来三个月将产量提高逾200万桶/天。

　　虽然第一季度的市场表现有些令人失望，因为许多欧洲和几个主要新兴经济体的疫情再次抬头，但随着疫苗接种运动开始产生影响，全球需求增长预计将加快。

　　IEA认为，全球石油市场在今年下半年将发生巨大变化，可能需要增加近200万桶/天的供应，才能满足预期的需求增长。但由于欧佩克+仍有大量的额外产能可以恢复，IEA并不认为供应紧张会进一步加剧。

　　该组织表示:“欧元区每月对供应量的校准可能使其石油供应具备灵活性，以满足不断增长的需求。若未能及时跟上需求复苏步伐，可迅速增加供应，或下调产出。”

　　王佳晶 摘译自 国际商业时报

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Goodbye Oil Glut Thanks To OPEC+ And Recovery

　　A glut in global oil markets is being worked off as the world economy begins to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and as OPEC and its allies restrain production, the IEA said Wednesday.

　　The International Energy Agency raised its expectations for the recovery in oil demand after the International Monetary Fund increased its forecasts for global growth this year.

　　"This improved outlook, along with stronger prompt indicators, has led us to revise up our 2021 global oil demand growth forecast," said the Paris-based body with advised oil consuming nations.

　　It now expects world oil demand to rise by 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) to 96.7 mbd, following last year's drop of 8.7 mbd.

　　The OPEC oil cartel on Tuesday also raised its 2021 demand forecast to 96.5 mbd.

　　Oil demand was hammered last year as many countries shut down swathes of their economies in a bid to slow the spread of Covid-19.

　　That caused a glut in supplies, but the so-called OPEC+ group that includes heavyweight producer Russia, sharply cut output last year to reduce that and counter the plunge in prices that briefly saw some turn negative as storage ran short.

　　That glut appears to have been largely worked off.

　　The IEA said preliminary data suggest that OECD oil stocks held largely steady in March, following seven consecutive months of draws, and were heading close to their five-year average.

　　OPEC+ has been slowly increasing output since the beginning of the year and at the beginning of April signalled it would lift output by more than 2 mbd in the coming three months in the face of an expected rise in demand.

　　While the first quarter was somewhat disappointing as many European and several major emerging economies saw a resurgence of Covid-19, global growth is expected to pick up as vaccination campaigns begin to have an impact.

　　IEA sees the global oil market changing "dramatically in the latter half of this year as nearly 2 mbd of extra supply may be required to meet expected demand growth."

　　But with OPEC+ still having plenty of additional production capacity that it can bring back on line, the IEA does not see a supply crunch developing.

　　"The bloc's monthly calibration of supply may give it the flexibility to meet incremental demand by ramping up swiftly or adjusting output lower should the demand recovery fail to keep pace," it said.