俄罗斯认为疫情对需求的影响将持续到2023-2024年

据烃加工在线4月8日消息，路透社看到的一份政府文件草案显示，俄罗斯预计新冠疫情大流行对全球石油和石油产品消费的影响可能会持续到2023-2024年。

报告还指出，全球主要经济体的脱碳行动对俄罗斯石油行业构成潜在威胁，而石油行业是俄罗斯预算收入的关键来源。

全球石油和液体燃料产量从2019年的1.0061亿桶/天下降到2020年的9425万桶/天。新冠疫情大流行导致了封锁，80%的空中交通和四分之一的道路交通在新冠疫情高峰时中断，并降低了燃料消耗。

欧佩克预计，根据其基本假设，今年石油需求将增加560万桶/日。俄罗斯能源部副部长诺瓦克也预测了类似的增长。

这份草案概述了2035年前石油行业的发展，同时也表明，由于石油生产和出口的限制，俄罗斯可能会失去全球石油市场份额。

报告称，2025年前全球油价可能会在每桶50至75美元之间波动，而在2025年至2030年期间，油价可能会在每桶50至60美元之间波动，而且不太可能大幅跌破50美元。

张春晓 摘译自 烃加工在线

原文如下：

Russia sees COVID-19 impact on oil demand to last until 2023-2024

Russia expects the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic on the global consumption of oil and oil products may last until 2023-2024, a draft government document, seen by Reuters, showed.

It also cites the decarbonization of leading global economies as a potential threat to its oil industry, a key source for Moscow's budget revenue.

World oil and liquid fuels production fell in 2020 to 94.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 100.61 million bpd in 2019, amid the pandemic, which led to lockdowns, halting 80% of air traffic and a quarter of road traffic at its peak and denting fuel consumption.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects oil demand to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day this year under its base case scenario. Russian Deputy Energy Minister Alexander Novak has also projected similar growth.

The draft document, outlining oil industry developments until 2035, also showed that Russia could lose global oil market share due to curbs on oil production and exports.

It says global oil prices are likely to trade in the range of $50-$75 per barrel by 2025, while in the second half of 2020s prices are seen at $50-$60 per barrel and they are unlikely to fall significantly below $50.