俄罗斯下调2021-2022年石油产量预测

据4月7日MENAFN消息：根据政府能源发展计划的最新修订，俄罗斯下调了对2021年和2022年国内原油、天然气和煤炭产量的预测。

根据俄罗斯政府的最新预测，今年的石油产量将达到5.17亿吨，低于此前估计的5.6亿吨。据塔斯社报道，俄罗斯对2022年石油产量的预测也下调至5.48亿吨，低于先前估计的5.58亿吨。

根据政府批准的文件，对2023年和2024年石油产量的估计保持不变。

预计天然气产量以及煤炭产量也低于先前预期。

然而，俄罗斯保持其液化天然气(LNG)产量预测与早先预测一致，预计2021年LNG产量为3010万吨。

上个月，俄罗斯政府批准了一项液化天然气的长期开发计划，预计到2035年，其产能将从目前水平提高三倍，达到每年1.4亿吨。

尽管如此，对今明两年石油产量预测的下调可能在一定程度上反映了正在进行的欧佩克+协议。

自今年年初以来，俄罗斯一直在争取欧佩克+对其石油产量小幅增加的让步。4月份，该国获准将产量提高13万桶/天，而欧佩克+联盟的其他成员国则被要求保持产量不变。

即使计划于5月放宽削减措施，俄罗斯仍然是欧佩克+协议的一部分，从目前的情况来看，该国仍将在7月实施大约500万桶/天的合并削减，届时将在未来三个月内减少100万桶/天的削减。

冯娟 摘译自 MENAFN

原文如下：

Russia Slashes 2021-2022 Oil Production Forecasts

Russia is slashing its estimates for domestic crude oil, gas, and coal production for 2021 and 2022, according to the latest amendments in the government's program for energy development.

As per the latest forecasts from the Russian government, oil production this year is set to stand at 517 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 560 million tons. The projection for Russia's oil output in 2022 was also reduced, to 548 million tons, down from earlier estimates of production of 558 million tons, TASS news agency reports.

The estimates for the oil production for 2023 and 2024 remain unchanged, according to the document approved by the government.

Natural gas production is also estimated lower than previous projections, as is coal output.

Yet, the Russian government kept its projection for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production the same as in earlier forecasts, expecting LNG production at 30.1 million tons in 2021.

Last month, Russia's government approved a long-term development program for LNG, expecting production capacity to rise threefold from current levels to 140 million tons per year by 2035.

Still, the reduced forecasts for oil production for this year and next likely reflect, in part, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement.

Russia has fought for and won concessions from OPEC+ for small increases in its oil production every month since the start of the year. For April, Russia was allowed to boost its production by 130,000 bpd, while the other members of the OPEC+ alliance have been asked to keep their production flat.

Even after the planned easing of the cuts as of May, Russia continues to be part of the OPEC+ pact, which, as it stands now, is set to still have combined cuts of around 5 million bpd in place in July, when it will have eased 1 million bpd of cuts over the next three months.