圭亚那的石油出口推动了苏伊士经济增长

据3月22日Oil Now报道，在美洲装货的中型油轮可能会在第二季度运费趋于下降，因为与天气有关的港口物流中断，并使原本受新冠肺炎疫情影响的阿芙拉型油轮和苏伊士型油轮货运市场的主要看涨因素消失。但普氏公司的一份报告中称，在全球新冠肺炎疫情环境动荡的情况下，圭亚那的石油出后量增加会对抗低迷的市场运价。

苏伊士型船板块的业务经常会从超级油轮和阿芙拉型船市场转移，因为中型油轮能够进行多样化的航行，对租船人来说，往往比同类船更实惠，这导致苏伊士型船运费较高成为连锁反应。

根据普氏的数据，埃克森美孚、66号菲利普斯和默库里亚在2月和3月会优先选择苏伊士型船而非阿芙拉型船。一位苏伊士型船船东3月17日表示：“苏伊士型船和巴拿马型船市场仍然是阿芙拉型船市场的奴隶。”

然而，对于在美洲装货的苏伊士型船来说，并非所有的箭头都指向下方，因为南美地区（即巴西和圭亚那）的出运量在过去一年中有所上升，并在未来几天内继续表现出强劲的势头，使运价在进入夏季低迷期时保持稳定。

每月约有三艘苏伊士型船规模的货物在圭亚那装船，这是自2020年10月以来出现的模式。圭亚那苏伊士型船的装货量与在科伟尼亚斯装货的四艘货物形成竞争。

这一趋势始于2020年，Liza浮式生产储存和卸载船在投入运营仅一年之后，于2020年12月达到了12万桶/天的标志性产能。

预计该地区的产量只会进一步增长，因为埃克森美孚目前有第二和第三艘FPSO正在开发中，计划于2022年和2024年投产。埃克森美孚还表示，计划到2026年至少有5个FPSO到位，达到每日75万桶的产能，长期来看可能会有10个之多。

对货运市场的长期影响尚待确定，因为美国墨西哥湾沿岸仍然是苏伊士美出口美洲的主要来源。“目前，圭亚那的问题更多的是石油问题，而不是航运问题，我们将拭目以待。”

冯于荣 摘译自 Oil Now

原文如下：

Guyana oil exports driving Suezmax fortunes

Midsize tankers loading in the Americas could see freight rates taper down in the second quarter, as weather-related port logistic disruptions will decrease to a seasonal low and remove the main bullish factor from the otherwise pandemic-affected Aframax and Suezmax freight markets. But increased trade flows out of Guyana could combat depressed market rates amid the volatile global pandemic environment, S&P Global Platts said in a report.

The Suezmax segment often sees shifts in business from the VLCC and Aframax markets, as the medium-sized tanker is able to make a diverse range of voyages and can often times quickly become more economical for charterers over their counterparts, which has led to firming Suezmax freight as a knock-on effect.

ExxonMobil, Phillips 66 and Mercuria were among several charterers that have preferred Suezmaxes over Aframaxes in February and March.

“The Suezmax and Panamax markets remain a slave to the Aframax market,” a Suezmax shipowner said March 17.

Yet not all arrows are pointing down for Suezmaxes loading in the Americas, as volumes out of South American locations, namely Brazil and Guyana, have ramped up over the past year and continue to show strength into the coming days, keeping rates afloat heading into the summer doldrum months.

This trend began in 2020, as the Liza floating production storage and offloading vessel ramped up to a nameplate capacity of 120,000 b/d in December 2020, after being only a year into operation.

Suezmax loadings of Liza crude entered the market at a time when typical Caribbean loadings have slowed amid US sanctions on Venezuela that were imposed in January 2019, which has left Covenas, Colombia, the only major export port in the region.

Production out of the region is only expected to grow further, as ExxonMobil currently has second and third FPSOs undergoing development that are planned to come online in 2022 and 2024, respectively. ExxonMobil has also stated plans to have at least five FPSOs in place by 2026 to reach a capacity of 750,000 b/d, with the potential to have as many as 10 in the long term.

Long-term impacts to the freight markets are yet to be determined as the US Gulf Coast remains the main source of Suezmax exports out of the Americas.

“The Guyana play is currently more of an oil story than a shipping story as of now, but we will see”.