EIA：欧佩克举措将减少全球原油库存和重振美国页岩钻探

据世界石油华盛顿报道，在3月4日的会议上，欧佩克+宣布，除了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦相对少量的增产以外，其他成员国将在4月份继续削减原油产量。这个宣告还指出，沙特阿拉伯将维持其额外的100万桶/天的自愿减产，直到4月底。今年2月，欧佩克+减产，加上美国供应中断，导致全球石油库存每月减少，美国能源信息署(EIA)估计全球石油库存每天减少370万桶，这是自2002年12月以来最大的月度减少。在3月初欧佩克+会议召开前，布伦特原油期货价格平均为63美元/桶， 欧佩克+的宣告进一步加大了原油价格的上行压力。在减产协议宣布后的几天里，即月布伦特原油期货的盘中交易价格一度超过了70美元/桶，这不仅是因为协议宣布之后的几天，还因为3月7日沙特阿拉伯的拉斯塔努拉石油设施遭到袭击。根据EIA 3月份的短期能源展望(STEO)报告，由于欧佩克+持续减产，EIA预计今年第一季度和第二季度的全球石油和其他液体库存将每天分别减少180万桶和60万桶。

在去年12月3日的会议上，欧佩克+宣布将把今年1月的产量增长从200万桶/天限制在50万桶/天。在今年1月5日的会议上，欧佩克+宣布将维持1月份的产量水平直到第一季度结束。此外，沙特阿拉伯决定在2月和3月单方面增加100万桶/天的减产。自欧佩克+去年12月宣布增产以来，该组织一直致力于维持更灵活的产量目标，以应对全球需求的复苏。这一承诺导致了产量目标的定期变化，导致EIA对今年欧佩克产量预测的修订。自去年5月首次减产以来，EIA将今年欧佩克原油平均日产量预测下调了160万桶，至2680万桶。

欧佩克+ 4月份持续减产表明，即使需求继续增长，短期内供应仍将受到限制。因此，EIA预计，为满足全球不断增长的原油需求，进一步的库存减少将支撑原油价格，至少到4月底。在2月份的STEO报告中，EIA预测欧佩克将在4月份开始放松减产，但在3月4日的宣告之后，EIA现在预计减产将在5月份开始放松，这在3月份的STEO报告中得到了反映。EIA预计，5月份欧佩克原油平均日产量将增加到2660万桶，比1-4月的平均日产量增加150万桶。

在3月份的STEO报告中，EIA预测今年3月和4月的布伦特原油均价将在67美元/桶。EIA继续预计，随着石油市场变得更加平衡，未来几个月原油价格将出现下行压力，预计布伦特原油价格将在今年下半年降至平均58美元/桶。EIA预测，今年3月和4月，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的平均价格为63.5美元/桶，今年下半年将降至55美元/桶。市场对未来价格不确定性的预期反映在WTI期货和期权的价值上，它可以用来确定一个隐含市场衍生的95%置信区间。截至今年3月4日，今年6月WTI合同的期货和期权合约价值分别确定在44美元/桶和83美元/桶的下限置信区间。随着时间的推移，95%的置信区间大幅扩大

EIA对油价下行压力和原油供应增加的预测存在几个关键的不确定性。根据COVID-19疫苗接种率以及旅行和就业状况恢复到COVID-19前水平的程度，实际需求恢复的速度仍是需求方面的一个重要不确定性。与此同时，欧佩克+的减产将在4月后继续，这仍然是供应方面的一个不确定性来源，特别是因为原油价格的上涨将鼓励欧佩克+减产协议的参与者在以后的会议上同意增产，或放松对现有协议的遵守。最后，美国致密油产量对油价上涨的反应也不确定。

EIA预测今年晚些时候和明年油价会走低，这在一定程度上取决于美国页岩产量对近期油价高企的反应，正如EIA 3月3日在《石油》杂志上讨论的那样，这表明生产商在近几个月一直在增加钻机和完井。最近原油价格的上涨意味着更多的美国致密油探区变得有利可图。EIA预计，今年下半年美国原油平均日产量将达到1140万桶，到明年将升至日均1200万桶。EIA估计，如果油价保持在当前水平，美国致密油产量的增长将导致全球石油库存在明年初持续增长。然而，在给定的价格水平上，生产商可能不会像过去那样配置资本，这将进一步增加EIA对原油产量和价格预测的不确定性。

与此同时，高油价也鼓励欧佩克+放松目前大量备用原油产能的生产目标，如果欧佩克+成员国决定增产，这些备用产能可以投入使用。在某种程度上，短期内价格上涨越多，未来价格下行的压力就越大。

李峻 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC’s plan will reduce global crude stocks and revive U.S. shale drilling, says EIA

At their March 4 meeting, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) announced they would maintain crude oil production cuts through April, except for relatively small production increases from Russia and Kazakhstan. The announcement also noted that Saudi Arabia would maintain its additional 1.0 million barrel per day (b/d) voluntary production cut through the end of April. In February 2021, OPEC+ cuts, combined with supply disruptions in the United States, contributed to monthly global petroleum inventory withdrawals that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates totaled 3.7 million b/d, the largest monthly withdrawal since December 2002. The Brent crude oil futures price averaged $63 per barrel (b) in early March leading up to the OPEC+ meeting, and the OPEC+ announcement put further upward pressure on crude oil prices. Front-month Brent futures briefly surpassed $70/b in intraday trading in the days following the announcement, not only because of the announcement but also because of an attack on the Ras Tanura oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on March 7. As a result of the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, EIA expects draws on global petroleum and other liquids inventories of 1.8 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d in the first and second quarters of 2021, respectively, according to EIA’s March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

At its meeting on December 3, 2020, OPEC+ announced it would limit its production increase in January 2021 from 2.0 million b/d to only 0.5 million b/d. At its meeting on January 5, 2021, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain January production levels through the first quarter. In addition, Saudi Arabia unilaterally contributed 1.0 million b/d of additional cuts for February and March. Since the OPEC+ December announcement, the group has committed to maintaining more flexible production targets in response to the global demand recovery. This commitment has contributed to regular changes in output targets, resulting in revisions to EIA’s 2021 OPEC production forecast. Since the initial production cuts in May 2020, EIA has reduced its annual average 2021 OPEC crude oil production forecast by 1.6 million b/d to 26.8 million b/d

The sustained OPEC+ production curtailment through April suggests that supply will remain constrained in the near term, even as demand continues to increase. As a result, EIA expects that further inventory withdrawals to meet rising crude oil demand will support crude oil prices through at least the end of April. In its February STEO, EIA forecast that OPEC would have begun relaxing production cuts in April, but following the March 4 announcement, EIA now expects production cuts to relax beginning in May, which is reflected in the March STEO. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will increase to an average of 26.6 million b/d in May, which would be an increase of 1.5 million b/d compared with the January–April average.

In the March STEO, EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $67/b in March and April 2021. As a result of EIA’s continued expectation of downward crude oil price pressures emerging in the coming months as the oil market becomes more balanced, Brent is forecast to fall to an average of $58/b during the second half of 2021. EIA forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $63.50/b in both March and April 2021 and to fall to $55/b in the second half of 2021. Market expectations of future price uncertainty is reflected in the value of WTI futures and options, which can be used to determine an implicit market-derived 95% confidence interval. As of March 4, 2021, the value of futures and options contracts determined the lower and upper bound confidence intervals of $44/b and $83/b, respectively, for the June 2021 WTI contract. The 95% confidence interval widens considerably over time

EIA’s forecast of downward oil price pressure and increased crude oil availability has several key uncertainties. The speed of actual demand recovery, based on COVID-19 vaccination rates and the degree to which travel and employment conditions return to pre-COVID levels, remains an important uncertainty on the demand side. At the same time, the degree to which OPEC+ production cuts will continue after April remains a source of uncertainty on the supply side, especially because increasing crude oil prices will encourage OPEC+ participants to agree to production increases in later meetings or to relax compliance with the existing agreement. Finally, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to higher oil prices is also uncertain.

EIA’s forecast of lower oil prices later in 2021 and 2022 depends in part on the responsiveness of U.S. shale production to recent high prices, which, as discussed in EIA’s March 3 This Week in Petroleum, suggests producers have been adding rigs and completing wells in recent months. The recent increase in crude oil prices means that more U.S. tight oil acreage is profitable. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will average 11.4 million b/d during the second half of 2021 and rise to an average of 12.0 million b/d in 2022. EIA assesses that if oil prices were to remain at current levels, growing U.S tight oil production would cause global oil inventories to grow persistently by early 2022. However, producers may not deploy capital in the same way they have in the past at given price levels, adding further uncertainty to EIA’s crude oil production and price forecasts.

At the same time, high prices also encourage OPEC+ to relax production targets given current, very large amounts of spare crude oil production capacity, which is available to come online if OPEC+ member countries decide to increase production. To some degree, then, the more prices rise in the near term, the more future downward price pressures they bring.