到2035年天然气将在化石燃料中表现最强劲增长

据阿纳多卢新闻3月10日新闻消息称，全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡公司合伙人Alessandro Agosta在接受阿纳多卢独家采访时表示，由于新兴经济体能源需求的增长以及更多国家对液化天然气(LNG)的广泛使用，未来15年，天然气的需求将以15%的速度增长，成为化石燃料中最强劲的需求增长。

Agosta表示，由于针对COVID-19危机采取了限制措施，石油需求受到影响，而天然气变得更具弹性。

根据国际能源署的数据，与2019年相比，去年全球石油需求下降约8%，至历史最低水平，而天然气需求下降2.5%，至3.9万亿立方米。

“在水泥、钢铁生产中使用天然气时，要更换天然气更加困难。这就是为什么我们说该行业的脱碳并不一定意味着减少天然气使用。脱碳将会出现，但它将来自能效设备或碳捕捉技术。”他补充说，这些技术将为天然气的绿色未来做出贡献。

Agosta表示，大部分天然气需求的绝对增长将来自中国或巴西等新兴和增长中的经济体，而欧洲天然气市场更为成熟，其需求增长将相对较低。

液化天然气预计将在全球日益增长的天然气需求中发挥关键作用。

壳牌在其最新的《2020年液化天然气展望》中表示，2019年全球液化天然气需求增长12.5%，至3.59亿吨，预计到2040年将翻一番，至7亿吨。壳牌表示，这一显著增长加强了液化天然气在向低碳能源体系转型过程中日益重要的作用。

Agosta指出：“我们认为液化天然气是天然气中增长最快的部分。这是一项经过验证的技术，已经有很多活动来打造绿色液化天然气产业，这是一个好兆头。”

朱佳妮 摘译自 阿纳多卢新闻

原文如下：

Gas to show strongest growth among fossil fuels by 2035

Natural gas is set to see the strongest demand growth among fossil fuels at 15% in the coming 15 years driven by increasing energy demand in emerging economies and the expanding use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in more countries, Alessandro Agosta, partner at global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, told Anadolu Agency in an exclusive interview.

Due to confinement measures against the COVID-19 crisis, Agosta said that oil demand suffered while natural gas became more resilient.

According to the International Energy Agency data, global oil demand decreased by around 8% last year to historic low levels, while natural gas demand saw a much smaller drop of 2.5% down to 3.9 trillion cubic meters compared to 2019.

"It is more difficult to replace natural gas when it is used in cement, steel production. That's why we say that the decarbonization of the sector will not necessarily mean a reduction in gas use. There will be decarbonization but it will come from energy efficiency appliances or carbon capture technologies," he said, adding that these technologies will contribute to a greener future for gas.

Agosta stated that most of the absolute growth in natural gas demand will come from emerging and growing economies like China or Brazil, while Europe with its more mature gas market will have relatively lower demand growth.

LNG is expected to play a key role in the increasing natural gas demand worldwide.

Shell said in its latest LNG Outlook 2020 that global demand for LNG rose by 12.5% to 359 million tons in 2019, and is forecasted to double to 700 million tons by 2040. According to Shell, this significant increase reinforces LNG’s growing role in the transition to a lower-carbon energy system.

"We think that LNG is the segment of natural gas that will see the fastest growth. It is a proven technology and there is already a lot of activity to make a green LNG industry which is a good sign," Agosta noted.