原油期货飙升 布伦特5月合约上涨近2%

据3月1日 Oil Now 报道，3月1日亚洲早盘原油期货大幅上涨，油市扭转前一交易日跌幅，在美国众议院批准美国进一步财政救济后，风险偏好情绪笼罩市场，即使交易商继续关注即将到来的欧佩克+会议。

新加坡时间上午10:44(格林威治标准时间0244)，ICE布伦特五月合约比2月26日结算价上涨1.14美元(1.77%)，至65.56美元/桶，而4月纽约商品交易所原油合约上涨1.07美元(1.74%)，至62.57美元/桶。

今天上午的油价上涨标志着油价从2月26日的下跌中复苏，当时布伦特和纽约商品交易所原油基准分别下跌2.56%和3.19%，原因是美国国债收益率上升迅速推高了美元。

不过，油价今早扭转跌势，美国众议院批准了1.9万亿美元的扩张性COVID-19刺激计划，其中包括直接支付、失业救济和COVID-19疫苗接种计划的资金，刺激了油价的复苏。目前，该方案正在等待美国参议院的批准。

人们广泛预期美国的财政减免措施将刺激美国经济复苏，提高对石油和能源的需求。

AXI首席全球市场策略师Stephen Innes在3月1日的一份说明中表示，“油价今早与多数风险资产同步回升，因美国刺激法案在众议院通过，且各国央行继续剑走偏锋，以抵御市场暗示的金融紧缩。”

尽管出台了刺激方案，但市场已经在为石油需求前景的改善而开心，这是由于疫苗的迅速推出和全球主要经济体新冠肺炎疫情病例的减少。

市场目前正密切关注3月4日的欧佩克+会议，预计该会议将为联盟未来的生产计划提供指导。

市场分析师普遍预计英国石油联盟将宣布在3月份的基础上增产，但供应的大幅增加可能会令市场恐慌，导致价格向下变动。

无论如何，市场分析人士认为，预期需求上升应该能够适应欧佩克+供应的缓和增长。

Innes说：“3月4日的欧佩克+会议是一个不可或缺因素，生产商面临的棘手任务是整理各种活动，形成一个皆大欢喜的战略。但是我们不得不说需要更多的供应进入市场，才能确保欧佩克+满足不断增长的需求，并且保持内部纪律。”

冯于荣 摘译自 Oil Now

原文如下：

Crude oil futures surge, ICE Brent May contract up almost 2%

Crude oil futures surged during the mid-morning trade in Asia March 1, with the oil market reversing the previous session’s losses as risk-on sentiment gripped the markets following the US House of Representatives’ approval of further US fiscal relief, even as traders continued to eye the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

At 10:44 am Singapore time (0244 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up by $1.14/b (1.77%) from the Feb. 26 settle to $65.56/b, while the April NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up by $1.07/b (1.74%) to $62.57/b.

The rise in oil prices this morning marks a recovery from the slide in prices seen on Feb. 26, when the Brent marker and NYMEX light sweet crude marker fell 2.56% and 3.19% respectively due to the rising US Treasury yields rapidly pushing up the dollar.

Oil prices however, reversed their losses this morning, with the recovery galvanized by the US House’s approval of an expansive $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package, which includes direct payments, unemployment benefits and funds for COVID-19 vaccination programmes. The package is now pending approval from US Senate.

Fiscal relief in the US is widely expected to energize the US economic recovery, improving demand for oil and energy.

“Oil prices are recovering this morning in line with most risk assets on the back of the US stimulus bill passing the House, and as central banks continue to sabre rattle to ward off market-implied financial tightening,” Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AXI, said in a March 1 note.

The stimulus package notwithstanding, the market was already celebrating an improved demand outlook for oil, caused by a rapid roll-out of vaccines, and the abatement of the coronavirus cases in major economies around the world.

The market is now looking intently towards the March 4 OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s production plan going forward.

Market analysts generally expect the coalition to announce an increase in production from March levels but have cautioned that a large increase in supply could spook the markets, leading to a downward price correction.

Regardless, market analysts believe that the expected uptick in demand should be able to accommodate a moderate increase in OPEC+ supply.

“OPEC+ meeting on March 4 is an increasingly essential ingredient, and producers face the tricky task of sorting through the various moving parts to form a strategy that makes everyone happy. But let’s not beat around the bush; more supply needs to come onto the market to ensure OPEC+ meets incremental demand and keeps internal discipline ducks in a row,” said Innes.