从美国为先到能源转型 两年间石油市场转变

据路透社3月1日纽约报道，2019年美国前国务卿迈克·庞培在全球最大的能源会议上登台亮相，宣布在经过十年的页岩气快速发展使美国成为世界上最大的石油和天然气生厂商之后，美国已在石油业占据统治地位。

两年后，为遏制新冠病毒蔓延而出台的限行令消除了全球五分之一的燃料需求，石油行业正从经历过的最严重的衰退中复苏。在成千上万的工作岗位流失之后，美国化石燃料行业仍然处于困境中。

疫情还加速了能源转型，中断了燃料消费的稳步增长，如若不然这种增长可能会持续数年之久。石油需求可能永远无法从此次打击中恢复。今年，在休斯顿举行的虚拟会议CERAWeek上，众多小组专门致力于向未来的低碳经济，氢能技术和气候变化的过渡。

微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨、美国气候特使约翰·克里、亚马逊和可再生能源巨头伊维尔德罗拉公司的发言人都是主要的发言者。

IHSMarkit副主席、CERAWeek创始人丹·耶金表示:“会议的基调有所不同:整个会议都围绕着一个主题，那就是能源转型。”

从那时起，全球许多主要石油公司都制定了雄心勃勃的目标，将新的投资转向减少碳排放、减缓全球变暖的技术。 BP 公司基本上已经放弃了其石油勘探团队;美国汽车巨头通用汽车宣布，计划在15年内停止生产汽油和柴油动力汽车。

可以肯定的是，2021年的计划包括了通常出席CERAWeek的石油领导人。他们中有欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德?巴尔金多，以及埃克森美孚、道达尔、雪佛龙和西方石油公司的首席执行官。

但他们将参加聚焦能源转型的小组讨论。巴尔金多将讨论在未来需求受到挑战的情况下，石油和天然气将有什么样的采收率。BP公司的鲁尼将与今年晚些时候将成为亚马逊公司首席执行官的安迪·雅西一起，参加一个关于重新开发能源的小组讨论。西方石油公司首席执行官Vicki Hollub和阿拉伯联合酋长国国务部长Ahmed Al Jaber将着手解决削减碳排放的问题。

石油公司面临着来自股东、政府和活动人士越来越大的压力，要求它们展示自己正在如何将业务从化石燃料转向可再生能源，并加快这一转变。

由大型石油公司组成的联盟——石油和天然气气候倡议(Oil and Gas Climate Initiative)战略与政策副总裁朱利安·佩雷斯表示:“今年的计划反映了向未来净零能源过渡的现实。”

裘寅 编译自 路透社

原文如下：

From U.S. domination to energy transition, two years that changed oil

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took the stage at the world’s largest energy conference in 2019 to declare an age of U.S. dominance after a decade of rapid shale development made the United States the world’s top oil and gas Producer.

Two years later, the oil industry is recovering from the worst recession it has ever experienced after measures to contain coronavirus stopped billions of people from traveling and wiped out one-fifth of worldwide demand for fuel. The U.S. fossil fuel industry is still reeling after tens of thousands of jobs were lost.

The pandemic has also accelerated the energy transition, interrupting a steady rise in fuel consumption that may have otherwise continued for several more years unabated. Oil demand may never recover from that hit. This year, the CERAWeek conference in Houston is entirely virtual and numerous panels are dedicated to the transition to the low-carbon economy of the future, hydrogen technologies and climate change.

Microsoft Corp co-founder Bill Gates, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, and speakers from Amazon and renewable fuels giant Iberdrola are among the headline speakers.

“The tone is different: There’s one theme that permeates the entire conference and that is energy transition,” said CERAWeek Founder Dan Yergin, vice chair of IHSMarkit.

Since that time, many of the world’s major oil companies have set ambitious goals to shift new investments to technologies that will reduce carbon emissions to slow global warming. U.K.-based BP Plc has largely jettisoned its oil exploration team; U.S. auto giant General Motors Co announced plans to stop making gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles in 15 years.

To be sure, the 2021 program includes oil leaders who typically appear at CERAWeek. They include Mohammed Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the chief executives of Exxon Mobil, Total, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum.

But they will participate in panels focusing on the energy transition. Barkindo will discuss what kind of a recovery oil and gas will have as future demand is challenged. BP’s Looney will join Andy Jassy, who is set to become Amazon.com Inc’s CEO later this year, on a panel about reinventing energy. Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub and Ahmed Al Jaber, United Arab Emirates minister of state, are slated to tackle cutting carbon emissions.

Oil companies have come under increasing pressure from shareholders, governments and activists to show how they are changing their businesses from fossil fuels toward renewables, and to accelerate that transition.

“This year’s program reflects the reality of the transition toward a net zero future,” said Julien Perez, vice president of strategy and policy for the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, a consortium of major oil companies.