路透社调查：多家银行认为今年油价将稳步上涨

据油价网伦敦报道，根据路透社2月26日对业内分析师的一次调查，今年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶59.07美元。

这一油价预测高于路透社1月份调查分析师达成的平均每桶54.47美元的共识，这反映出人们对这种全球交易量最大的大宗商品的近期前景越来越乐观。

瑞士银行巨头宝盛集团的Norbert Ruecker对路透社记者表示，“由于刺激措施、信心、疫苗和更有针对性的应对新冠肺炎疫情大流行措施的混合，旅游和休闲活动看来将赶上上涨的制造业活动。”

在加速接种疫苗、政府刺激措施和持续的供应纪律(特别是在欧佩克+成员国和美国页岩油生产商之间)的共同作用下，一些银行上调了他们的油价预期。

例如，美国银行(Bank of America)最近表示，油价预计将以30年来最快的速度增长。美国银行预计，未来5年里，布伦特原油平均价格将在每桶50美元至70美元之间。

巴克莱银行预计，今年全球原油交易基准价格将平均每桶67美元，理由是美国原油库存恢复正常，以及美国页岩行业对油价上涨的反应减弱。

巴克莱银行表示，“比正常天气更冷的天气，尤其是在美国南部各州，对产出的影响超过了需求，从而加速了库存的正常化。”

高盛银行2月早些时候甚至进一步推高了油价预测，预计布伦特原油可能在今年第三季度达到每桶75美元，原因是石油市场的再平衡速度快于此前的预期。

高盛银行分析师表示，由于市场再平衡和政府旨在重启受新冠肺炎疫情大流行打击的经济的刺激措施，人们甚至开始讨论油价在德州冻结后重返三位数的可能性。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Reuters Poll: Bankers See Steady Rise In Oil Prices

Brent crude will average $59.07 per barrel this year, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.

This is up from last month’s consensus on an average of $54.47 a barrel, reflecting growing optimism about the immediate future of the world’s most traded commodity.

“Travel and leisure activity look set to catch up to buoyant manufacturing activity due to the mix of stimulus, confidence, vaccines, and more targeted pandemic measures,” one of the survey respondents, Norbert Ruecker from Swiss Julius Baer, told Reuters.

The combination of accelerating vaccination drives, government stimulus, and continued supply discipline, notably among OPEC+ members and U.S. shale producers, has lifted oil prices recently, with a number of banks revising their oil price forecast upwards.

Bank of America, for instance, recently said it expected oil prices to grow at the fastest rate in three decades. The bank forecast Brent will average between $50 and $70 over the next five years.

Barclays expects the global benchmark to trade at an average of $67 a barrel this year, citing normalizing inventories in the United States and a weaker response of the U.S. shale patch to rising oil prices.

“Colder-than-normal weather, especially in the southern states, has accelerated the normalization in inventories by disrupting output more than demand,” Barclays said.

Goldman Sachs went even higher earlier this month, predicting Brent could hit $75 a barrel by the third quarter of this year thanks to faster than previously expected oil market rebalancing.

Talk has even started about the possibility of oil returning into three-digit territory after the Texas Freeze, again thanks to a rebalancing market and government stimulus aimed at restarting pandemic-hit economies. Goldman analysts said.