机构观点：俄罗斯必须摆脱对石油的依赖

据2月27日The Independent报道，俄罗斯必须摆脱对石油的依赖。必须利用石油和天然气收入来做到这一点。这也就是当前该公司所面临的挑战，这是一个具有俄罗斯特色的故事。待会再谈这个问题。首先是必须谈的是规模。

要知道，俄罗斯过度依赖能源和原材料出口，这两项出口约占总出口总额的三分之二。这意味着，它不仅要应对石油和天然气价格的变化;同时，强调粗生产意味着它未能建立其他形式的能源和财富创造。这导致了巨大的货币波动。

2020年，油价暴跌重创了政府财政。基于去年3月每桶28美元的油价，政府披露了390亿美元(280亿英镑)的预算缺口，这远低于2020年预算计划中每桶42美元的平均水平。官方的观点是，每桶42美元是俄罗斯的盈亏平衡油价。幸运的是，现在油价回升至每桶66美元，俄罗斯财政部终于可以喘口气了。

如果在短期内仍不能令人满意，从长远来看也存在麻烦的。根据英国石油(BP)的数据，全球84%的一次能源来自煤炭、石油和天然气这三种化石燃料。煤炭所占比例正在下降，降至27%，天然气占24%，石油占33%。这种情况会改变，但改变的速度有多快?麦肯锡认为，到2050年，化石燃料仍将占总能源的74%。彭博社的新能源展望认为，石油需求将在2035年达到顶峰，而天然气需求将持续增长到2050年。但似乎有一种普遍观点认为，到2050年以后，石油和天然气的需求下降速度将加快。

这对全球石油和天然气生产商有着巨大的影响。现在或许需要一代人的时间，可以利用石油收入投资可再生能源，并更广泛地投资其他经济领域，包括高质量的服务。中东地区已经在发生变化，尤其是沙特阿拉伯正在寻求利用石油收入为转向其它活动提供资金。沙特在其“沙特愿景2030”(Saudi Vision 2030)项目中制定了雄心勃勃的计划，其中的两个目标分别是：增加私营部门的规模，从2016年的占GDP的40%到2030年的65%；并将非石油出口从占总量的16%提高到50%。这将是一个巨大的挑战。

俄罗斯没有像沙特阿拉伯这样，明确长期经济计划。不过，该国有一项恢复计划帮助修复疫情造成的破坏，但这是一项短期工作。有一项有争议的计划是通过波罗的海的Nord Stream 2天然气管道增加对德国的天然气出口，但这反映了一个不同的优先事项——德国需要俄罗斯的天然气，这条管道可以直接获得额外的供应。但如果纯粹的经济角度来看，这是有实际意义的。因为德国需要天然气，俄罗斯需要收入。

谈到对俄罗斯的石油公司方面的影响，以及上面提到的英国的转变。要知道，俄罗斯最大的能源企业是俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)。该公司实际上控制着俄罗斯天然气公司Rosneftegaz超过40%的股份，还拥有全球最大天然气生产商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom) 11%的股份。不过，英国石油(BP)是俄罗斯石油的少数股东，BP持有该集团略低于20%的股份。

令人感兴趣，俄罗斯石油公司一直寻求作为一家完全独立的公司运营。董事长是德国前总理格哈德 (Gerhard Schr?der)，董事会中有执行董事、非执行董事和独立董事，其中包括两名英国石油(BP)的代表。该公司面临的重大问题与所有石油公司一样:多快才能实现绿色能源转型。

由于俄罗斯石油公司在西伯利亚泰梅尔半岛(Taymyr peninsula)的沃斯托克(Vostok)项目，情况变得更加复杂。该项目价值850亿美元(610亿英镑)，目标是在2024年达到日产50万桶(或每年2500万吨)的产量，最终达到可能的1亿吨的峰值。

俄罗斯石油公司正寻求将油气生产期间的排放量削减30%，至每千桶二氧化碳排放量不到20吨，但这仍可能意味着，如果产量增加，绝对排放量将上升。俄罗斯石油公司还声称，Vostok项目的碳足迹将是全球其他类似项目的25%。

BP正在迎头赶上，但其首席执行官伯纳德?鲁尼(Bernard Looney)认为，该公司的努力并未得到投资者的认可。但它需要有能力为这一转变提供资金，而在这方面，它与俄罗斯石油公司的关系可能最有帮助。至关重要的是，它从所持Rosneft股份中获得了股息，2019年为7.85亿美元，自2013年以来达到40亿美元。但这也能让Rosneft获得越来越多的关于如何让替代能源赚钱的知识。保持合作对双方利益而言都非常有利。

但从长远来看，俄罗斯需要成功转型，摆脱对石油和天然气的过度依赖。俄罗斯政府在使用可再生能源方面采取了一些措施，政府似乎在推动数字技术来帮助改变俄罗斯的能源行业。能源部已经开发了一个名为“数字能源”的项目，旨在创建实现这一目标的基础设施。

当然，从长远来看，推动来自俄罗斯和其他国家的能源革命性技术可以帮助全世界所有人。因为这存在进行真正合作的空间，大家应该一起为变革而努力。

王佳晶 摘译自 The Independent

原文如下：

Russia has to change its energy habits – and overcome political divides to do so

Russia has to wean itself off its reliance on oil. But it has to use oil and gas revenues to do so.

That is the fascinating, tantalising challenge facing the country, and it is story that has a British twist. Come to that in a moment. First the scale of what has to be done.

Russia is overly reliant on energy and raw material exports, which account for some two-thirds of the total. That means that not only does it have to cope with shifts in oil and gas prices; emphasis on primary production means it has failed to build up other forms of energy and wealth-creation. This leads to huge monetary swings.

Last year, the plunge in oil prices devastated government finances. The government disclosed a $39bn (￡28bn) budget shortfall. That was based on an oil price last March of $28 a barrel, well below the average of $42 a barrel in the 2020 budget plan. The official view is that $42 a barrel is Russia’s break even oil price. But now the price as recovered to $66 a barrel, more than reversing the collapse last year. The Russian treasury can breathe again.

If this is obviously unsatisfactory in the short-term, it is troubling in the long run too. According to BP, 84 per cent of the world’s primary energy comes from the three fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas. The share of coal is shrinking, down to 27 per cent of the total. Gas is 24 per cent, and oil 33 per cent. This will change, but how fast? McKinsey thinks that fossil fuels will still contribute 74 per cent of total energy in 2050. Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook thinks that oil demand will peak in 2035, though gas will go on rising through to 2050. But there seems to be a general view that beyond 2050 that the decline in both oil and gas will gather pace.

This has huge implications for the world’s oil and gas producers. There is time – perhaps a generation – to use the revenues from petroleum to invest in renewables, and more widely into other areas of the economy including high-quality services. Already change is happening in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia in particular seeking use oil revenues to finance the shift to other activities. It has set out ambitious plans in its Saudi Vision 2030 project. Take just two elements of that: the goal is to increase the size of the private sector from 40 per cent of GDP in 2016 to 65 per cent in 2030, and to increase non-oil exports from 16 per cent of the total to 50 per cent. This will be an enormous challenge.

Russia does not have an explicit long-term plan for the economy similar to that of Saudi Arabia. There is a recovery plan to help repair the damage caused by the pandemic, but this is a short-term exercise. There is the controversial plan to increase gas exports to Germany, through the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline down the Baltic Sea, but that reflects a different priority. Germany needs Russian gas, and the pipeline gives direct access to additional supplies. But if you look at it from a purely economic perspective it makes practical sense. Germany needs gas and Russia needs revenue.

Now focus on what this means for oil companies in Russia, and the British twist noted above. The largest enterprise is Rosneft. It is in effect controlled by Rosneftegaz, the state-owned holding company that has just over 40 per cent of its shares and also owns 11 per cent of Gazprom, the largest gas producer in the world. Rosneft however has a minority owner, BP, which has just under 20 per cent of the group.

Rosneft is interesting, for though it is controlled by the government, it has sought to operate as a fully independent company. Its chair is Gerhard Schr?der, the former German Chancellor and it has a balance of executive, non-executive, and independent directors on its board, including two representatives of BP. The great question it faces is the same as that of all oil companies: how fast to go green?

This matter is complicated by Rosneft's Vostok Oil project in Siberia’s Taymyr peninsula. The project, which is valued at $85bn (￡61bn), is aiming at production of 500,000 barrels a day – or 25m tons a year – in 2024 before eventually reaching a peak of potentially 100m tons. While the world still needs oil, environmentalists have long decried the idea of drilling in the area.

Rosneft is seeking a 30 per cent cut in emissions during the production of oil and gas, to an equivalent of less than 20 tons of CO2 per thousand barrels – but this could still mean a rise in absolute emissions if production increases. Rosneft also claims that the Vostok Oil project will have a carbon footprint which is 25 per cent of other similar global projects.

BP is racing ahead, though its chief executive, Bernard Looney, believes that it is not getting investors’ recognition for its efforts. But it needs to be able to finance the shift, and here its relationship with Rosneft is potentially most helpful. Critically it receives the dividends that flow from its stake in Rosneft, $785m in 2019 and $4bn since 2013. But it also can give Rosneft access to its growing knowledge of how to make alternatives pay. It is powerfully in the self-interest of both to keep cooperating.

But on a long view Russia needs to make a successful transition away from over-reliance on oil and gas. The Russian government has made some moves towards the use of renewable energy, with authorities seemingly pushing for digital technologies to help change Russia's energy sector. The Energy Ministry has developed a project called “Digital Energy” which is aimed at creating the infrastructure to make that happen.

Certainly, a push on transformative technology from both Russia and other countries could help us all in the long run.

There is certainly scope for genuine cooperation – where it suits both sides to march together for a change.