IEA:太阳能将成为新的“电力之王”

据能源世界网10月13日巴黎报道，国际能源署(IEA)表示，预计太阳能发电量将在未来10年引领可再生能源供应的激增，在当前条件下，可再生能源将占全球发电量增长的80%。

在周二发布的年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，IEA在其核心情景(反映了IEA已宣布的政策意图和目标)中表示，到2025年，可再生能源有望取代煤炭，成为主要的发电方式。

据该报告称，太阳能光伏发电(PV)和风能在全球发电中的总份额将从2019年的8%上升到2030年的近30%，太阳能光伏发电能力将以平均每年12%的速度增长。

IEA执行干事法提赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示，我认为太阳能将成为世界电力市场的新霸主。根据目前的政策设置，2022年以后每年的部署都有望创新纪录。

IEA表示，成熟的技术和支持机制已经削减了大型太阳能光伏项目的融资成本，从而帮助降低了整体发电成本。 太阳能光伏现在比大多数国家的新建燃煤或燃气发电厂便宜。

总部位于巴黎的该机构补充道，可再生能源发电是2020年持续增长的唯一主要能源。

据报告称，更雄心勃勃的情况，包括到2050年实现净零排放目标，将使光伏发电的表现更加强劲。

该报告还指出，尽管太阳能和风能发电有所增长，但碳排放预计在2020年下降24亿吨之后，将在2021年回升，并在2027年超过2019年的水平，到2030年达到360亿吨。

IEA表示，在许多情况下，长期目标与具体的近期减排计划之间仍存在差距。

该报告还表示，将新的风能和太阳能发电整合起来，将取决于包括配电网络在内的系统各部分的充分投资。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Solar the new 'king of electricity' as renewables make up bigger slice of supply: IEA

Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency said, with renewables seen accounting for 80 per cent of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.

In its annual World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the IEA said in its central scenario - which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced - renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.

The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30 per cent in 2030 from 8 per cent in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12 per cent a year.

"I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. "Based on today's policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022."

Maturing technology and support mechanisms have cut financing costs for major solar PV projects, the IEA said, helping to bring down output costs overall. Solar PV is now cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, it said.

Power generation from renewables is the only major source of energy that continued to grow in 2020, the Paris-based agency added.

A more ambitious scenario, including for instance the adoption of net-zero emissions targets by 2050, would see PV electricity generation perform more strongly still, the report said.

Despite the increase in solar and wind power, carbon emissions are projected to pick up in 2021 after a 2.4 gigatonne (Gt) drop in 2020, and to exceed 2019 levels in 2027 before growing to 36 Gt in 2030, it added.

The IEA said gaps remain in many cases between long-term ambitions and specific near-term plans to curb emissions.

Integrating new wind and solar power will depend on adequate investment in all parts of the system, including distribution networks, the report added.

But revenue shortfalls - potentially arising from lower-than-expected demand, non-payment of bills, or the detoriating finances of utilities in developing economies - could make power grids a weak link.