预计今年冬天液化天然气需求将会增长

据10月12日Gas World报道，受中国、日本和南亚的经济增长带动，今年冬天液化天然气的需求预计将增加40亿立方米。

这是根据天然气出口国论坛(GECF)最近组织的“全球液化天然气的冬季前景”视频会议的部分结果得出的。该活动是在上周举办的，有一个专家小组，液化天然气研究与预测主管安妮?凯特?布雷维克(Anne Kat Brevik)、液化天然气首席分析师劳拉?佩奇(Laura Page)以及信息提供商Refinitiv的高级分析师亨基先生参与其中。

液化天然气供应预计将增长30亿立方米，以美国为首。在综合需求和供应预测方面，预计液化天然气市场将比去年冬天略吃紧10亿立方米。

一些风险仍然存在于预测中，例如冬季天气和疫情。

联合国秘书长Yury Sentyurin承认科学预测的重要性，他表示:“新冠肺炎从很多方面强调了数据的重要性，因此我们可以绘制和分析与疫情相关的措施对经济和社会的影响。”

对未来一段时间的准确规划不仅取决于天气和疫情，还取决于政府政策等因素，这些政策往往会改变液化天然气的需求和定价。

王佳晶 摘译自 Gas World

原文如下：

LNG demand expected to grow this winter

LNG demand is expected to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter, led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia.

That’s according to findings presented as part of a recent video conference organised by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), titled ‘Winter Outlook for Global LNG – Cautiously Optimistic’.

Hosted last week, the event featured a panel of experts, including Anne Kat Brevik, Director of LNG Research & Forecasts, Laura Page, Lead LNG Analyst, and Mr Hengky, Senior Analyst (LNG) from information provider Refinitiv.

“We expect LNG demand to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter and that’s led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia,” the representatives said.

“LNG supply is expected to grow by three billion cub meters, led by the US. And when we put together demand and supply forecast, we expect the LNG market to be slightly tighter than last winter by one billion cubic meters.”

Several risks still remain in the forecasts, such as winter temperatures and the pandemic.

Recognising the importance of scientifically drawn forecasts, HE Secretary General Yury Sentyurin, said, “In many ways, COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of data so we can map and understand the economic and social effects of pandemic-related measures.”

The conference’s audience further heard that accurate planning for the period ahead depends on not just weather and the pandemic but also factors such as government policies that can often change the course of LNG demand and pricing.