到2045年世界能源需求将每年增长0.9％

据阿纳多卢新闻10月10日消息称，根据欧佩克周四发布的《2045年世界石油展望》的数据，全球一次能源需求将以年均0.9%的速度增长，从2019年的2.89亿桶石油当量/天增长到2045年的3.61亿桶石油当量/天。

欧佩克表示，COVID-19大流行的爆发导致能源和石油需求出现了最严重的下滑，并称这一时期是“自上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的经济低迷”。

尽管2020年石油产量大幅下降，但欧佩克表示，全球一级能源需求在中长期将继续增长，到2045年将增加7200万桶/天。

欧佩克预测，同期非经合组织国家的能源需求将增加7650亿桶/天，而同期经合组织国家的需求将减少约440万桶/天。

欧佩克表示，预计全球能源需求增长的近一半将来自印度和中国。

报告补充说:“印度、中国和其他人口不断增长、经济高速增长的发展中国家在增加能源需求方面发挥着关键作用，而经合组织的发达国家则在提高能源效率和低碳技术方面做出了更多努力。”

报告说，向可再生能源过渡和减少温室气体(GHG)排放将继续得到与《巴黎协定》目标一致的政策手段的支持。

尽管随着世界从新冠中摆脱出来，石油需求有望逐渐恢复，但石油生产的前景还取决于对价格稳定、石油需求水平回升以及由此产生的投资决定的期望。

报告称，到2045年，石油仍将是全球能源结构中占最大份额的燃料，占27%以上，其次是天然气(占25%)和煤炭(占20%)。

欧佩克预计，基于健康的增长速度，石油需求将在2025年达到9440万桶/天，2045年达到9950万桶/天。

曹海斌 摘译自 阿纳多卢新闻

原文如下：

World energy demand to rise 0.9% per year to 2045: OPEC

Global primary energy demand will see an average growth rate of 0.9% per year, increasing from 289 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2019 to 361 mboe/d in 2045, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) World Oil Outlook 2045 published on Thursday.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand, OPEC said, describing the pandemic period as “the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s.”

Despite the huge drop in 2020, OPEC said global primary energy demand would continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 72 mboe/d in the period to 2045.

OPEC forecast that energy demand in non-OECD countries would increase by 76.5 mboe/d, while demand in the OECD would drop by around 4.4 mboe/d in the same period.

OPEC said nearly half of total energy demand growth is expected to come from India and China.

“India, China and other developing countries with increasing populations and high economic growth play a key role in increasing energy demand while developed nations in the OECD are exerting more of their efforts on energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies,” it added.

The transition to renewable energy sources and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will continue to be supported by policy instruments in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the report said.

While oil demand is expected to gradually recover as the world emerges from the pandemic, the outlook for oil production is also dependent upon expectations of price stability, recovered oil demand levels and resulting investment decisions.

According to the report, oil will remain the fuel with the largest share of the global energy mix until 2045 with more than a 27% share followed by gas with 25% and coal with 20%.

OPEC expects that oil demand will reach 94.4 mboe/d in 2025 and 99.5 mboe/d in 2045 based on healthy growth rates.