EIA预计明年年底全球石油市场将趋于平衡

据今日油价网站9月23日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）周三表示，欧佩克+在美国的减产将有助于全球库存在今年剩余和明年大部分时间里继续减少，从而在2021年底之前形成一个相对平衡的市场。

EIA估计，欧佩克+协议以及其他地区（主要是北美地区）的产量下降，使全球供应自2019年年中以来首次低于需求水平，并指出，供应赤字使得膨胀的全球库存自6月以来下滑。

EIA在其9月短期能源展望（STEO）中称：“预计库存将在2020年下半年和2021年的大部分时间内继续下降，从而在明年年底之前形成一个相对平衡的市场。”

8月，由于欧佩克+和美国减产，全球液体燃料产量平均为9150万桶/日，同比下降970万桶/日。

美国8月原油产量从5月的1000万桶/日的近期低点升至1080万桶/日，据EIA估计，石油运营商在第二季度暴跌后，为应对油价上涨，部分油井重新上线。

尽管一些专家、官员和分析师表示，全球库存正在下降，并将在今年剩余时间里继续减少，但其他人则将需求复苏乏力和COVID-19的死灰复燃作为对未来几个月库存下降前景保持谨慎的理由。

例如，全球最大的独立石油交易商维多集团预计，在今年剩余时间内全球石油库存将继续减少。

但另一家主要大宗商品交易商托克则预计，今年年底前市场将呈现以供应为主的局面，随着需求复苏停滞，到2020年底库存将增加。

王磊 摘译自 今日油

原文如下：

EIA Sees Global Oil Market Balancing By End-2021

The OPEC+ production cuts and curtailments in the United States are set to help global inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year and most of next year, resulting in a relatively balanced market by the end of 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

The OPEC+ deal and the production drops elsewhere, most of all in North America, have brought global supply below the level of demand for the first time since the middle of 2019, the EIA estimated, noting that the supply deficit has helped bloated global inventories to decline since June.

“EIA expects inventories to continue declining in the second half of 2020 and during most of 2021, resulting in a relatively balanced market by the end of next year,” it said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for September.

In August, global liquid fuels production averaged 91.5 million bpd, down by 9.7 million bpd year over year, due to the OPEC+ cuts and U.S. curtailments.

U.S. crude oil production in August rose to 10.8 million bpd from a recent low of 10.0 million bpd in May as oil operators brought some wells back online in response to rising prices after the slump in Q2, as per EIA’s estimates.

While some experts, officials, and analysts say that global inventories are declining and will continue to draw down through the rest of the year, others have flagged faltering demand recovery and resurging COVID-19 cases as reasons for being careful about the outlook on inventory drawdowns in the coming months.

Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, for example, expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year.

But another major commodity trader, Trafigura, expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as the demand recovery stalls.