美国油气行业持续收缩 下降步伐有所缓和

据9月23日Dallasfed消息：根据达拉斯联邦储备银行能源调查，油气行业高管表示，2020年第三季度油气行业活动略有下降。商业活动指数是该调查针对第十一区能源公司最广泛条件的衡量指标，仍处于负数范围，但从第二季度的-66.1上升至第三季度的-6.6，这表明收缩速度已大大降低。

生产指数大幅上升，但仍为负值，表明生产下滑放缓。根据勘探与生产高管的数据，石油生产指数从第二季度的-62.6上升到第三季度的-15.4。天然气产量指数上升38点，至-10.1。

勘探开发公司资本支出指数从第二季度的-66.1升至第三季度的-16.4，表明资本支出的降幅较小。此外，油田服务公司的资本支出指数从-73.5增加到-35.1。

油田服务公司的状况继续恶化，尽管恶化速度有所减缓。第三季度设备利用率指数跃升50点，至-18.9，意味着利用率下降，但降幅远低于前季。营业利润率指数从-68.6增加到-30.8。服务业的物价指数保持在负数范围内，但从-64.7上升至-26.4。随着投入成本的持续下降，企业得到了一些缓解，该指数本季度为-9.5。

与劳工相关的指标再次下降，但增速较上个季度温和。就业总指数连续第六个月为负，但从-46.1升至-18.1。此外，雇员总工作时数指数由-47.0升至-15.3。工资和福利总额指数仍为负值，但从-41.7升至-19.4。

第三季度，公司前景指数回到了勉强为正的水平，为1.9。该数据接近于零，表明经济前景保持相对不变，较前两个季度的急剧恶化有所稳定。此外，与上一季度相比，本季度注意到不确定性上升的公司较少，总体不确定性指数下降19点，至17.2。

平均而言，受访者预计到2020年底，西德克萨斯中质原油价格将达到43.27美元/桶，反应区间在每桶30-60美元之间。调查参与者预计到年底，Henry Hub天然气价格将达到2.55美元/百万英热。作为参考，WTI现货价格在调查收集期间平均为38.47美元/桶，Henry Hub现货价格平均为2.05美元/百万英热。

冯娟 摘译自 Dallasfed

原文如下：

Contraction Continues in Oil and Gas Sector but Pace of Decline Has Moderated

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined modestly in third quarter 2020, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms—remained in negative territory but improved from -66.1 in the second quarter to -6.6 in the third quarter, suggesting that the pace of the contraction has significantly lessened.

Production indexes rose significantly but remained negative, suggesting a moderation in production declines. According to exploration and production (E&P) executives, the oil production index rose from -62.6 in the second quarter to -15.4 in the third. The natural gas production index increased 38 points to -10.1.

The index for capital expenditures for E&P firms increased from -66.1 in the second quarter to -16.4 in the third, indicating a less-severe reduction in capital spending. This means that expenditures are declining but not as much as before. Additionally, the index for capital expenditures for oilfield services firms increased from -73.5 to -35.1.

Conditions among oilfield services firms continued to deteriorate, albeit at a slower rate. The equipment utilization index jumped 50 points to -18.9 in the third quarter, implying utilization declined but at a much slower pace than over the prior quarter. The operating margins index increased from -68.6 to -30.8. The index of prices received for services also remained in negative territory but moved up, from -64.7 to -26.4. Firms found some relief as the input costs continued to decline; the index was -9.5 this quarter.

Labor-related indicators fell again, but at a more modest pace than last quarter. The aggregate employment index posted a sixth consecutive negative reading but moved up from -46.1 to -18.1. Additionally, the index of aggregate employee hours worked increased from -47.0 to -15.3. The index for aggregate wages and benefits remained in negative territory but rose from -41.7 to -19.4.

The company outlook index returned to barely positive territory in the third quarter, coming in at 1.9. The near-zero reading indicates the outlook remained relatively unchanged, a stabilization from the sharp deterioration seen over the prior two quarters. Additionally, fewer firms noted rising uncertainty this quarter than last, and the aggregate uncertainty index fell 19 points to 17.2.

On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $43.27 per barrel by year-end 2020, with responses ranging from $30 to $60 per barrel. Survey participants expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be $2.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by year-end. For reference, WTI spot prices averaged $38.47 per barrel during the survey collection period, and Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.05 per MMBtu.