全球炼油商都在艰难地应对需求疲软和库存过剩

据能源世界网9月21日墨尔本/伦敦/纽约报道，根据企业高管、炼油工人和行业分析师表示，全球炼油企业因数月需求低迷和库存充足而减产，因受新冠疫情影响的需求复苏已经停滞。

今年春季，由于新冠疫情封锁摧毁了出行需求，炼油商减产多达35%。随着封锁的缓解，炼油商在8月底缓慢增加产量。但在最大的燃料消费国美国和其他地方，炼油商在过去几周一直在降低燃料价，以应对库存增加、需求持续缺乏以及自然灾害。

中国是全球第二大燃料消费国，在控制住冠状疫情后，引领全球石油需求复苏。

澳大利亚燃料供应商Viva能源集团(Viva Energy Group Ltd .)首席执行官斯科特?怀亚特(Scott Wyatt)本月早些时候表示，新冠的影响……给我们的炼油业务带来了前所未有的巨大压力，并且长期来看还不可持续。

馏分油(包括柴油、航空燃油和取暖油)的库存通常会在冬季之前开始增加，而今年的库存正处于饱和状态，将导致未来几个月炼油利润率前景不佳。

根据美国能源信息署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)的数据显示，美国燃料需求同比下降13%。取暖油和柴油的使用量通常会在秋季上升，但由于库存超过1.79亿桶，接近纪录高点，炼油商没有动力继续运营。

位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)上周两个月来第二次下调了对今年全球石油需求的预测，由于复苏步履蹒跚。根据能源监管机构预测，2020年全球石油和液体燃料的日均消耗量将为9170万桶，比先前的预测减少20万桶，较2019年的1.001亿桶减少840万桶。

美国炼油厂的燃料产量仍比疫情前减少了20%。印度、日本和韩国的炼油厂从7月和8月开始降低产能。

Argus首席经济学家David Fyfe在本月早些时候的一次网络会议上表示:“即便经济出现U型复苏，需求仍可能比2019年第四季时低200万桶/天左右。”

今年9-11月的季节性维护期间，亚洲的燃料产量可能会进一步下降，世界各地的一些工厂预计将关闭。

澳大利亚Viva表示，除非冠状病毒引发的限制措施得到放松，需求回升，否则该公司可能被迫永久关闭其位于维多利亚的Geelong炼油厂，以减少亏损。澳大利亚政府提议花费数十亿美元来维持该国剩余的四家炼油厂的运营。

作为亚洲市场风向标的新加坡综合炼油利润率，在连续四个月亏损之后，8月略有上升，9月上半月为负。

在美国，炼油利润徘徊在每桶9美元左右，接近4月份的最低水平。炼油商通常不会从产品上获利，除非价差(原油和燃料之间的价差)高于10美元。

据知情人士透露，为节省现金，费城和芝加哥地区的数家炼厂已推迟了今年秋季的生产计划。总的来说，关闭进行季节性维护的炼油厂比往常要少。

日本是世界第三大原油进口国，截至9月12日当周，其炼油利用率从8月中旬的近72％降至65.9％。

韩国最大的炼油商SK创新有限公司(SK Innovation Co Ltd)发言人表示，该公司正在考虑进一步降低其旗下两家炼油厂的原油加工量。此前，该公司将9-10月原油平均利用率从7-8月的85%降至80%。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Oil refiners worldwide struggle with weak demand, inventory glut

Global oil refiners reeling from months of lackluster demand and an abundance of inventories are cutting fuel production into the autumn because the recovery in demand from the impact of coronavirus has stalled, according to executives, refinery workers and industry analysts.

Refiners cut output by as much as 35 per cent in spring as coronavirus lockdowns destroyed the need for travel. As lockdowns eased, refiners increased output slowly through late August. But in top fuel consumer the United States and elsewhere, refiners have been decreasing rates for the last several weeks in response to increased inventories, a sustained lack of demand and in response to natural disasters.

The second largest fuel consumer led the world in oil demand recovery after taming its outbreak of coronavirus.

"The impacts of COVID-19...are putting extreme pressures on the refining business that we have not experienced before and are not sustainable over the longer term," Scott Wyatt, chief executive at Australian fuel supplier Viva Energy Group Ltd , said earlier this month.

Inventories of distillates, which include diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, which usually start building ahead of winter, are brimming this year, leading to a poor outlook for refinery margins for the coming months.

U.S. fuel demand has fallen 13 per cent year-on-year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Autumn is typically when use of heating oil and diesel rises, but with more than 179 million barrels in storage, nearly a record, refiners have no incentive to keep units running.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2020 for the second time in two months last week due to the faltering recovery. The energy watchdog forecast global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 91.7 million barrels per day for all of 2020, a reduction in its previous forecast of 200,000 bpd and down 8.4 million bpd from 2019's 100.1 million bpd level.

U.S. refiners are still producing 20 per cent less fuel than before the pandemic. Indian, Japanese and South Korean refineries cut their utilization rates from July and August.

"Even with a U-shape economic recovery, demand potentially is going to be around 2 million bpd below where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019," David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus, said on a webinar earlier this month.

Asia's fuel output could fall further during seasonal maintenance between September and November, and several facilities worldwide are expected to close.

Average utilization rates at Chinese state-owned refineries were at around 78.6 per cent by end-August, down around 3.6 percentage points from July, data compiled by China-based Longzhong consultancy showed.

Australia's Viva said it may be forced to permanently shut its Geelong Refinery in Victoria to curtail losses unless coronavirus-led restrictions are eased and demand picks up. The Australian government has proposed spending billions of dollars to keep the country's four remaining refineries open.

Singapore's complex refining margins, a bellwether for Asia, were negative in the first half of September, after turning slightly positive in August following four straight months of losses.

In the United States, the refining margin is hovering around $9 a barrel, near its lowest levels in April. Refiners typically do not turn a profit on products unless the crack spread - the difference between crude and fuel - is higher than $10.

Several refiners in the Philadelphia and Chicago area have put off planned work this autumn to save cash, according to sources familiar with those plants. In total, fewer refineries than usual will shut for seasonal maintenance.

Japan, the world's third-largest crude importer, cut its refinery utilization rate to 65.9 per cent in the week through Sept. 12, down from nearly 72 per cent in mid-August.

South Korea's largest refiner SK Innovation Co Ltd is considering further lowering crude processing at its two refineries after reducing average utilization rates to 80 per cent in September-October from 85 per cent in July-August, according to a company spokeswoman.