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API:今年预计将是一次“一劳永逸”的经济衰退

作者: 2020年09月23日 来源:中国石化新闻网 浏览量:
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据今日石油2020年9月18日报道,今年新冠肺炎疫情大流行带来的巨大挑战,对全球油气行业造成了重大干扰,造成了成千上万人下岗、大量停业停产,导致石油勘探生产未来不确定性加大。

据今日石油2020年9月18日报道,今年新冠肺炎疫情大流行带来的巨大挑战,对全球油气行业造成了重大干扰,造成了成千上万人下岗、大量停业停产,导致石油勘探生产未来不确定性加大。

虽然到目前为止圭亚那的海上油气活动基本上没有受到疫情的影响,但如果这种螺旋式下降无限期地继续下去,全球石油工业前景无疑将最终对这个南美国家的油气作业产生影响。

但是在隧道的尽头还是有光明的。美国石油学会(API)日前发布的2020年第三季度石油工业展望报告显示,全球经济、石油和天然气市场在再平衡和正常化方面取得了显著进展。API首席经济学家迪安·福尔曼博士说,这对石油行业和消费者来说都是令人鼓舞的消息。

API说,2020年被普遍预计将是一次“一劳永逸“的经济衰退,新兴市场首当其冲。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的统计数据,从今年第三季度开始,全球石油需求将超过供应,明年油价将维持在50美元/桶左右。

根据API展望报告,彭博共识预计全球经济复苏将从今年第三季度开始。报告称:“与彭博共识一致,世界银行预计全球经济将在2021年恢复增长,从历史上看,石油消费一直与经济同步增长。”

根据EIA的统计数据,在今年第三季度,经合组织经济体的石油日需求量减少了470万桶,而非经合组织经济体则减少了240万桶。

API在其今年第三季度石油工业展望报告中称,“相比之下,今年第三季全球原油日产量比去年同期减少了970万桶,主要受欧佩克成员国带头减产的影响。”

福尔曼博士说,圭亚那的石油经济很可能经受住当前的低价格环境,因为其预计的经济增长来自石油收入和石油质量,石油行业认为石油是一种利基产品,这将对圭亚那有利。

自2015年以来,埃克森美孚公司在圭亚那近海获得了18个油气发现,总储量超过了80亿桶油当量。圭亚那去年12月开始石油生产。

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下:

2020 expected to be a ‘one and done’ recession as oil demand bounces back – API

The enormous challenges triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic this year have caused major disruptions to the global oil and gas industry resulting in thousands of lay-offs, multiple shut-ins and mounting uncertainties about the future of petroleum exploration and production.

Although offshore activities in Guyana have so far continued largely unaffected, the global industry outlook will no doubt ultimately have an impact on operations in the South American country if the downward spiral continued indefinitely.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Industry Outlook for Q3 2020 released on Thursday shows the global economy, oil and natural gas markets, have made noteworthy progress toward rebalancing and normalizing. This, API Chief Economist, Dr. Dean Foreman says is encouraging news for the industry and consumers alike.

“2020 is broadly expected to be a ‘one-and-done’ economic recession, keyed by emerging markets. Beginning in Q3 2020, global oil demand appeared to exceed supply and could support prices of about $50 per barrel in 2021 per the U.S. Energy Information Administration,” Dr. Foreman said, in recounting some of the highlights of the API Industry Outlook report.

According to the API Outlook, Bloomberg consensus expects economic recovery to take hold beginning in Q3 2020. “Consistent with the Bloomberg consensus, World Bank expect global economic growth to resume in 2021, and oil consumption has historically grown in tandem with the economy,” the report said.

In Q3 2020, oil demand among OECD economies fell by 4.7 million barrels per day, compared with 2.4 mb/d among Non-OECD economies, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“By contrast, Q3 2020 global supply was down by 9.7 million barrels per day compared with one year ago with cuts led by OPEC nations,” API said in its Q3 2020 Industry Outlook.

Dr. Foreman has said Guyana’s oil economy is likely to withstand the current low-price environment since its projected economic growth from oil revenues and the quality of its oil, which the industry considers a niche product, will work in the country’s favour.

Since 2015, ExxonMobil has made 18 discoveries offshore Guyana amounting to well over 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources. Oil production began in the country last December.

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标签:经济衰退 新兴市场

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