国际油价将在窄幅区间波动

据9月17日Investing.com报道，本周，石油市场对石油需求的预测几度悲观，但油价无视这些报告，逆势攀升。布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格均在每桶40美元左右徘徊，而布伦特原油略有上涨。只有当市场全面了解全球经济复苏，以及能够准确识别复苏是已经到来、正在接近还是正在停滞时，大的变化才可能来临。

市场正等待着短期需求的重大变化，而长期的需求问题仍然不那么引人注目。

英国石油公司本周早些时候发布了《2020年能源展望》，并推测全球石油需求可能在2019年已达到顶峰，这成为了各大新闻头条。这与英国石油2019年的预测大相径庭，该公司曾预测，需求峰值将在2030年出现，这一预测相当大胆。

对于英国石油公司的《2020年能源展望》中提出，石油需求将不再超过1亿桶/天，值得注意的是，这些仅仅是预期，且报告中的一些推理是可疑的。例如，假定政府将继续以近年来相同的速度促进可再生能源技术的发展。可以说，这份报告假设了即将到来的“能源转型”的预期结果，然后再列举了造成这一结果的原因。

如果各国政府投入刺激资金促进能源转型，这可能是真的，但由于今年已经产生的成本，因此存在不确定性。

英国石油公司的这份报告旨在支持英国石油公司完全放弃化石燃料业务的战略计划——这是欧洲石油公司日益增长的趋势。交易员不应利用英国石油公司的预测来考虑未来的石油需求，因为这是不现实的。

报告甚至不应该与国际能源署、美国能源信息署、欧佩克和埃克森美孚公司提供的预期一考虑,因为它主要对那些关注英国石油公司未来计划和股价的投资者有用，这些计划包括每年在“低碳技术”上投入50亿美元，以及从化石燃料转型，从天然气过渡。

与此同时，IEA和欧佩克都再次下调了对2020年石油需求的预期。欧佩克下调预期的主要原因是，欧佩克下调展望的主要原因是，它认为印度和其他亚洲国家的需求复苏不再那么强劲。

IEA呼应了欧佩克的观点，即东亚和印度的需求将低于预期，但该机构也认为，全球航空旅行和航空燃油的严重疲软将持续到2021年。该组织预计全球石油需求将仅达到9170万桶/天，并预计在2020年剩余时间内石油需求将下降。市场没有被这两次修正所吓倒，这表明市场的对IEA或欧佩克的预期存疑。

欧佩克和IEA可能在亚洲的需求预期上存在偏差，中国9月份石油消费出现疲软，但这可能只是暂时现象。正如上周本专栏所讨论的那样，随着瓶颈问题的解决和额外存储容量的建立，中国的需求似乎有可能在第四季度回升。

GasBuddy和IHS Markit的初步数据显示，美国的汽油消费自一个半星期前的劳动节以来有所下降。汽油消费有可能在感恩节(接近11月底)和年底假期前后回升。

本周，油价摆脱了所有这些令人沮丧的预测。美国能源信息署(EIA)的一份报告显示，上周美国石油库存有所下降，有鉴于此，WTI价格周三上涨近5%，达到每桶40美元。布伦特原油价格也升至每桶略高于42美元。但在经济和需求出现实质性变化之前，两者都不会走出这个价格区间。

欧佩克今天举行了一次部长级联合监督委员会(JMMC)会议，以评估减产配额的执行情况，并可能就石油政策的改变提出建议。一些分析师预测，由于油价仍未上涨，JMMC将建议进一步减产。

然而，在欧佩克中仍有很大影响力的沙特阿拉伯不希望进一步削减其石油产量。尽管随着气温下降，沙特阿拉伯的国内石油和天然气消费量将下降，但该国的主要关注点是为利润丰厚的东部地区供应石油。

由于沙特阿拉伯预期中国和其他亚洲国家的需求将会增加，因此不太愿意进一步减产。

王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Why Oil Prices Could Remain In A Tight Range

The oil market saw several dour forecasts for oil demand this week, yet prices ignored these reports and pushed higher.

We continue to see oil in a relative holding pattern, with both Brent and WTI hovering around $40 per barrel—Brent slightly higher. Big changes will probably only come when we get a better sense of the global economic recovery and whether it has arrived, is approaching, or stalling.

The market is waiting to move on major changes in short term demand. Longer term demand issues remain less compelling, but let’s unpack what emerged this week and preview today’s OPEC+ JMMC meeting to explore their implications for the market.

BP (LON:BP) Demand About-Face

BP (NYSE:BP) released its Energy Outlook 2020 earlier this week and made major headlines by theorizing that global oil demand may have topped in 2019. This is a major departure from BP’s 2019 forecast, which saw peak demand occurring in 2030 (an already aggressive forecast).

The important thing to understand about the scenarios presented in BP’s Energy Outlook 2020—two of which see oil demand never again rising above 100 million bpd—is that they aren’t really forecasts. Rather, this report assumes the desired conclusion of an approaching “energy transition” and then explains how we get there.

Some of the reasoning in the report is suspect. For example, every scenario—even the “business-as-usual” version—assumes that governments will continue increasing their promotion of renewable energy technology at the same rate as they have over recent years.

This may be true if governments commit stimulus funds to energy transition promotion, but it may not happen because of the costs they have already incurred this year. Moreover, if President Trump wins reelection, he and other conservative politicians globally are less likely to spend on energy transition plans.

The BP report is designed to support BP’s strategic plans to shift away from the fossil fuel business entirely—a growing trend among European oil companies. Traders shouldn’t use BP’s projections to inform their considerations of future oil demand, because it isn’t realistic.

The report shouldn’t even be considered alongside the forecasts provided by the IEA, EIA, OPEC and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) because it is primarily useful for investors looking at BP’s future plans and share price, which include spending $5 billion a year on “low-carbon technologies” and transitioning away from fossil fuels, even away from natural gas.

IEA And OPEC's Revised Outlooks

Meanwhile, both the IEA and OPEC revised their 2020 oil demand forecasts lower again. OPEC’s primary reason for cutting its outlook was that it no longer sees demand recovering quite as robustly in India and other Asian countries.

The IEA echoed OPEC’s sentiment that demand in East Asia and India will be weaker-than-expected, but it also sees serious weaknesses in global air travel and jet fuel continuing well into 2021. It expects that global oil demand will only reach 91.7 million bpd and sees oil demand decreasing during the rest of 2020. The market was not scared by these two revisions, indicating that sentiment was probably already more skeptical than either the IEA or OPEC.

Where OPEC and the IEA may be wrong is Asia. We are seeing weaknesses in China’s September oil consumption, but that is likely to prove transitory. As discussed in this column last week, China’s demand looks likely to pick up in the fourth quarter as bottlenecks are resolved and additional storage capacity is built.

We are also seeing preliminary data from GasBuddy and IHS Markit showing that gasoline consumption in the U.S. has decreased since Labor Day, a week and a half ago. It is possible that gasoline consumption could pick up around Thanksgiving (toward the end of November) and the end-of-year holidays, but it is unclear how many people will feel comfortable traveling to see family in 2020.

Oil prices shrugged off all of the depressing forecasts this week. WTI went up by nearly 5% and hit $40 per barrel on Wednesday based on a positive EIA report that showed that U.S. oil stocks decreased last week. Brent also rose to just above $42 per barrel. But neither is moving out of this price range until something real changes with the economy and demand.

Further OPEC+ Production Cuts?

OPEC+ is holding a virtual Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting today to assess compliance with quotas and possibly give recommendations for changes to oil policy. Some analysts are predicting that the JMMC will recommend further cuts because oil prices are still not rising.

However, Saudi Arabia, a nation that retains a lot of power in the group, does not want to curtail its production any further. While Saudi Arabia’s domestic oil and gas consumption will be dropping as the cooler temperatures arrive, its primary concern in the oil industry is supplying its lucrative East Asian contracts.

Since Saudia Arabia likely understands that China and other nations in Asia will see increased demand, it's unlikely to assent to further production slashes at this time.