疫情加速脱碳 但几十年内油气仍扮演重要角色

据ICIS网站9月14日消息 英国能源巨头BP周一表示，疫情过后，世界将致力于迅速摆脱化石燃料，旨在通过脱碳来减轻气候变化的影响，尽管油气将继续在材料生产中发挥作用。

在其年度能源展望中，这家能源巨头表示，碳定价将在减排方面发挥关键作用。碳定价是污染者为其产生的二氧化碳排放买单。

然而，由于目前还没有替代材料，通过石油化工产品生产材料将继续主要使用化石燃料。

BP表示：“燃料的非燃烧使用（主要用作石油化工产品、沥青和化肥的原料）是增加对化石燃料需求的重要来源，尽管随着环境压力的增加，这一比例低于过去20年。”

能源展望中预测，到2050年，有三种可能的情景。在快速发展情景下，政策措施将导致碳价格大幅上涨，促使能源行业在本世纪中叶前减排70%。

这种情况是唯一符合《气候变化巴黎协议》承诺的情景，该承诺旨在到2100年将全球气温上升幅度与工业化前水平相比限制在2摄氏度以下。

零排放情景将是实现该协议的最雄心勃勃的情景，在该协议中，政策“通过社会和消费者行为及偏好的重大转变而得到加强”，循环经济的概念得到广泛实施。在这种情况下，到2050年，排放量将下降95%。

照常经营（BAU）认为，政策行动有限，能源生产将像过去几十年一样发展。然而，随着可再生能源的发展，在这种情况下，排放量可能在2020年中期达到峰值，尽管与2018年相比，2050年的排放量只会下降10%。

BP表示：“液体燃料的非燃烧使用，主要作为石化行业的原料，在一定程度上支撑了整体液体需求，在快速发展和照常经营两种情况下都有所增加，仅在展望的最后10年净零排放时才降至2018年水平以下。”

BP补充称，快速发展方案所需的“市场合理化”程度将比其他两种方案更为明显，预计在这种情况下，约5000万桶/日的原油（当前或计划产能）将超过需求。

“在快速发展情况下，对这些压力最具弹性的炼油能力得益于：弹性的国内需求、优势原料的获取、高水平的升级、与石化产品的整合，以及在某些地区政府的支持。”

如何定价碳排放将是任何减排的关键。BP假设在快速和净零排放的情况下，价格会迅速上涨。到2050年，发达国家的二氧化碳价格将达到250美元/吨，新兴经济体将达到175美元/吨。

在常规经营情况下，发达经济体的碳价格将达到65美元/吨，新兴经济体将达到35美元/吨。

王磊 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下：

Pandemic hastens crude's demise but hydrocarbons to play a role for decades – BP

The world will aim to move away from fossil fuels at speed post the pandemic, aiming to lessen the impact of climate change via decarbonisation, although hydrocarbons will continue to play a role in materials production, UK energy major BP said on Monday.

In its annual Energy Outlook, the crude oil major said carbon pricing, where polluters pay for the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions they generate, will play a key role in reducing emissions.

However, the production of materials through petrochemicals will continue to be made mostly with fossil fuels as alternative materials are not yet available.

“The non-combusted use of fuels – predominantly as feedstocks for petrochemicals, bitumen and fertilizers – is an important source of incremental demand for fossil fuels, although less than in the past 20 years as environmental pressures increase,” said BP.

The Energy Outlook forecasts three potential scenarios to 2050; in the Rapid scenario, policy measures will lead to a significant increase in carbon prices, prompting the energy sector to reduce emissions by 70% by the mid-point of this century.

This scenario is the only one that meets the Paris Accord pledge on climate change, which aims to limit the rise in global temperatures by less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels.

The Net Zero scenario would be the most ambitious to meet the Accord, in which policies are “reinforced by significant shifts in societal and consumer behaviour and preferences”, with the circular economy concept widely put in place; emissions would fall by 95% by 2050 in this scenario.

Business-as-usual (BAU) contemplates that policy action is limited, and energy production would evolve as in past decades; however, as renewable energy gains traction, emissions could peak in the mid-2020s under this scenario, although they would have fallen only by 10% in 2050, compared with 2018 levels.

“The non-combusted use of liquid fuels, largely as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector, provides some degree of support to overall liquids demand, increasing in both Rapid and BAU [scenarios], and declining below 2018 levels only in the final 10 years of the Outlook in Net Zero,” said BP.

BP added that the degree of “market rationalisation” required in the Rapid scenario would be more pronounced than in the other two scenarios, forecasting that in this stance around 50m bbl/day of crude oil – current or planned capacity – would surpass demand.

“The refining capacity that is most resilient to these pressures in Rapid is aided by: resilient domestic demand, access to advantaged feedstock, high levels of upgrading, integration with petrochemicals and, in some regions, government support.”

How carbon is priced will be key to any reduction in emissions; BP assumes rapidly rising prices in the Rapid and Net Zero scenarios, reaching $250/tonne of CO2 in the developed world by 2050, and $175/tonne in emerging economies.

In the BAU scenario, carbon prices would reach $65/tonne in developed economies and $35/tonne in emerging economies.