到2050年印度化石燃料使用量将首次下降

据能源世界网9月15日新德里报道，《BP能源展望2020》周一表示，印度对化石燃料的需求将大增，尽管在全球范围内，随着气候举措推动可再生能源，而新冠疫情在需求上留下了持久的伤疤，到2050年，印度的化石燃料消费将在现代史上首次下降。

该展望认为，2018年至2050年，印度的一次能源消费将增长2.5%，而全球的增幅为0.3%。该展望预计，按照“一切照旧”的假设，到2050年印度的石油消费量将增加一倍以上，达到1,000万桶。但在“快速”假设下，天然气需求预计将从580亿立方米骤降至3570亿立方米。“到2050年，印度的油气进口总量将增加一倍以上，这在一定程度上是由煤改气带动的。煤改气导致印度对进口液化天然气的依赖显著加深。

全球范围内，化石燃料需求可能不会升至疫情之前的水平。

尽管报告认为，中国的能源需求增长相对于过去的趋势急剧放缓（在2030年代初达到顶峰），但在所有情况中，包括“净零”，其仍将是最大的能源市场，占2050年世界能源需求的20%以上。这几乎是印度的两倍。

但在全球范围内，化石燃料需求可能永远无法恢复到疫情前的水平，因为该疫情加速了能源业务的“根本性重组。 在这三种情况下，化石燃料的份额将从2018年占一次能源总需求的85%下降到2050年的20%-65%。

该报告称，印度4月份的燃料销售减少了一半多，因为全国范围的封锁将人们限制在家中，并停止了几乎所有的经济活动。在政府于6月开始解除限制之后，需求飙升至接近锁定前水平的80%，但在8月却出现疲软，较上年同期下降15.6%。未来30年，石油需求将下降。 下降的规模和速度是由公路运输的效率提高和电气化推动的。并补充道，天然气的前景比石油更具弹性，其基础是天然气在支持快速增长的发展中经济体脱碳和减少对煤炭的依赖方面所起的作用。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Fossil fuel usage set to drop for 1st time

India’s thirst for fossil fuels willincrease by a big margin, even though globally, consumption will shrink for the first time in modern history through 2050 as climate initiatives propel renewable energy while the coronavirus pandemic leaves a lasting scar on demand, the benchmark BP Energy Outlook 2020 said on Monday.

The outlook saw India’s primary energy consumption growing by 2.5 per cent between 2018 and 2050 and 0.3 per cent globally. It sees India’s oil consumption more than doubling to 10 million barrels by 2050 under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. But gas demand is seen jumping from 58 bcm (billion cubic meters) to 357 bcm under the ‘rapid’ scenario. “India’s combined oil and gas imports more than double by 2050, driven in part by increased coal-to-gas switching which leads to a marked deepening in India’s dependence on imported LNG,” the outlook said.

Globally, fossil fuel demand may not rise to pre-Covid levels

Though the report sees growth in China’s energy demand slowing sharply relative to past trends — peaking in the early 2030s — it will still remain the largest market for energy in all scenarios, including ‘net zero’, to account for over 20 per cent of the world’s energy demand in 2050. This will be almost twice that of India.

But globally, fossil fuel demand may never recover to pre-coronavirus levels as the pandemic hastens “fundamental restructuring” of the energy business. The share of fossil fuels is set to decline from 85 per cent of total primary energy demand in 2018 to between 20 per cent and 65 per cent by 2050 in the three scenarios, it said.

India’s fuel sales more than halved in April as the countrywide lockdown confined people to their homes and shut almost all economic activities. Demand shot up to nearly 80 per cent of the pre-lockdown level after the government began lifting curbs in June but faltered in August, down 15.6 per cent from the year-ago period. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years. The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation,” the report said, adding the outlook for natural gas was more resilient than for oil, underpinned by its role in supporting fast-growing developing economies as they de-carbonised and reduced their reliance on coal.