欧佩克下调2020年石油需求预测

据CNBC网站9月14日消息：欧佩克降低了对今年石油需求增长的预测，理由是印度和其他亚洲国家的复苏低于预期，并警告称明年下半年风险仍较高且倾向于下行。

在周一发布的月度报告中，产油国集团下调了对2020年全球石油需求的预期，将其平均日需求调整为9,020万桶。较上月预估减少40万桶，较上年同期减少950万桶。

报告发布之际，能源市场参与者对经济复苏乏力和疫情后燃料需求受挫越来越感到担忧。

中东占主导地位的欧佩克组织由一些世界上最大的石油生产国组成，该组织周一表示，由于第二季度所有次区域的石油需求下降低于预期，该组织已将经合组织国家的石油日需求上调约10万桶。

然而，由于亚洲，特别是印度的石油需求表现疲软，非经合组织地区的石油需求被下调了50万桶/天。

展望未来，欧佩克表示，对亚洲石油需求的负面影响预计将持续到2021年上半年。

此外，包括印度在内的其他亚洲国家的经济复苏速度和石油需求增长潜力仍不确定。因此，欧佩克目前预计明年全球石油需求将增长660万桶/天，至平均9,690万桶/天。最新的预测比此前预测低了40万桶。

国际基准布伦特原油周一报39.76美元/桶，下跌约0.2%；美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)报37.26美元/桶，下跌约0.1%。

自今年年初以来，油价已下跌约40％。

冯娟 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout

OPEC has cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year, citing a weaker-than-expected recovery in India and other Asian countries, and warned risks remain “elevated and skewed to the downside” for the first half of next year.

In a closely-watched monthly report published Monday, the group of oil-producing nations downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020. That’s down 400,000 bpd from the previous month’s estimate and reflects a contraction of 9.5 million bpd year-on-year.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Middle East-dominated group, which consists of some of the world’s largest oil producers, said on Monday it had revised oil demand in OECD countries up by around 100,000 bpd due to less-than-expected declines in all sub-regions during the second quarter.

However, oil demand was revised down by 500,000 bpd in the non-OECD region due to weaker oil demand performance in Asia, particularly in India.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

“Additionally, risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of Covid-19 infection cases and potential vaccines,” the group said in the report.

“Furthermore, the speed of recovery in economic activities and oil demand growth potential in Other Asian countries, including India, remain uncertain,” it added.

As such, OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 6.6 million bpd to an average of 96.9 million bpd next year. This updated forecast was also 400,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $39.76 a barrel on Monday, down around 0.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $37.26, roughly 0.1% lower.

Oil prices have dropped around 40% since the start of the year.