EIA将明年全球石油日需求增长削减50万桶

据石油新闻2020年9月9日华盛顿报道，由于中国的石油消费增长预期降低，美国能源信息署（EIA）9日把其对明年全球石油日需求增长的预期比8月份的预测下调了50万桶，至650万桶。

EIA 9日在其最新一期的短期能源展望报告中说，EIA目前预计明年中国的石油需求将日增100万桶，低于其8月份预测的150万桶。

EIA称，8月份全球石油日需求增加了100万桶，为5月需求从新冠肺炎疫情封锁后开始复苏以来的最低月度增幅。8月份还标志着全球石油供应增长在复苏期间首次超过石油需求增长。

报告称：“尽管8月份全球石油生产和消费的增长速度不同，但EIA预测，由于需求持续复苏、欧佩克+减产和美国与价格相关产量下降，石油市场平衡在2020年剩余时间内将继续收紧。”

EIA称，美国今年将平均日产1138万桶石油，比其上个月预期石油日产量提高了12万桶。EIA预计，明年美国石油日产量将下滑至1108万桶。

EIA估计，尽管墨西哥湾海上运营商在飓风劳拉期间关闭了生产，但由于运营商在春季油价暴跌后恢复了油井生产，美国9月份石油日产量环比增加了40万桶，达到了1120万桶。

EIA预计，9月以后美国石油产量将小幅下降，2021年上半年的平均日产量将略低于1100万桶。EIA预计，新的钻井活动无法弥补现有井产量的下降。

李峻 编译自 石油新闻

原文如下：

US EIA cuts 2021 global oil demand growth by 500,000 b/d on China outlook

The US Energy Information Administration has cut its outlook for 2021 global oil demand growth by 500,000 b/d from last month's forecast to 6.5 million b/d on lower expected consumption growth in China.

EIA now sees China demand growing 1 million b/d next year, down from 1.5 million b/d in last month's forecast, it said Sept. 9 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Global oil demand grew by 1 million b/d in August, the slowest month-on-month increase since demand started recovering from coronavirus lockdowns in May, EIA said. August also marked the first time during the recovery period that global supply growth surpassed demand growth.

"Despite the different pace of increase between global oil production and consumption during August, EIA forecasts oil market balances to continue tightening for the remainder of 2020 as a result of continued demand recovery, restrained production from [OPEC+] and price-related declines in production from the United States," the report said.

US oil production is set to average 11.38 million b/d in 2020, EIA said, raising its outlook by 120,000 b/d from last month. It sees US oil output slipping to 11.08 million b/d in 2021.

EIA estimates US oil production jumped 400,000 b/d month on month to 11.2 million b/d in September, as a result of operators bringing wells back online after the spring's price crash and despite offshore Gulf of Mexico operators shutting in production during Hurricane Laura.

EIA sees US oil output declining slightly after September, averaging just under 11 million b/d in the first half of 2021. It predicts new drilling activity will not offset declines from existing wells.