全球石油需求将需要3年才能恢复到疫情前水平

据油价网2020年9月8日纽约报道，美国证券银行公布的最新统计数据显示，由于航空燃油消费仍将远低于去年的水平，全球石油需求将需要3年时间才能恢复到疫情大流行前的水平。

BofAS在TradeArabia发布的每周能源报告中说，虽然公路燃料需求已恢复到接近疫情爆发前的水平，但航空燃料需求仍难以大幅增长，因为与疫情爆发前的“正常”水平相比，航空旅行仍显著下降。

来自全球航班跟踪服务公司Flightradar24上周公布的统计数据显示，8月份全球商业航班的增长比2019年8月的水平低了45.2%，而且增速比6、7月份要慢得多。

BofAS的分析师表示，在有效疫苗或治疗方法推出之前，航空旅行不会出现反弹。然而，根据世界银行的说法，一种有效的疫苗仍然需要12到18个月的时间才能推出。

BofAS说，如果疫苗在2021年底推出，到2022年航空旅行将恢复到危机前水平的75%，到2023年将恢复到典型消费水平的90%。

就较长期而言，这家美国银行预计全球石油需求将在2030年达到大约1.05亿桶/天的峰值，原因是电动汽车在轻型汽车销售中所占份额不断上升。BofAS的基本设想是，到2030年前，电动汽车将占轻型汽车销量的34%，到2050年前占95%。

根据BofAS的说法，氢燃料电池汽车也可能取代部分运输的石油需求，特别是如果绿色氢价格大幅下跌的话。

国际能源署(IEA)能源市场和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori本周早些时候说，在短期内，由于炼油利润率疲软、航空燃料需求缺乏复苏以及全球经济增长的不确定性，全球石油需求复苏似乎已停滞不前。

需求复苏步履蹒跚的一个迹象是，世界最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯下调了10月份出口亚洲和美国原油的官方售价。

荷兰国际集团(ING)策略师沃伦?帕特森和姚文宇周二表示：“很明显，这表明市场收紧的速度没有许多人预期的那么快，供应在小幅走高，需求显然在放缓。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下:

Global Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Crisis Levels In Three Years

It will take three years for global oil demand to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, as jet fuel consumption continues to trend much lower than last year’s levels, according to Bank of America Securities.

While road fuel demand has recovered to nearly pre-COVID-19 levels, aviation fuel demand is struggling to take off materially as air travel is still significantly down compared to ‘normal’ levels from before the pandemic, BofAS said in a weekly energy reported carried by TradeArabia.

Air travel will not rebound until an effective vaccine or cure for COVID-19 is rolled out, the BofAS analysts said. An effective vaccine, however, is still 12 to 18 months down the line, according to the bank.

Data from global flight tracking service Flightradar24 showed last week that in August, commercial flights made it up to 45.2 percent below August 2019 levels, but grew at a much slower pace than June and July.

If a vaccine is rolled out at the end of 2021, air travel would recover to 75 percent of pre-crisis levels in 2022 and to 90 percent of the typical consumption level in 2023, BofAS says.

For the longer term, the bank sees global oil demand peaking at some 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, due to the rising share of electric vehicles (EVs) in light duty vehicle sales. BofAS’ base-case scenario is EVs taking a 34-percent share of light vehicle sales by 2030 and 95 percent of sales by 2050.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could also displace part of oil demand for transportation, especially if green hydrogen prices fall materially, according to BofAS.

In the near term, oil demand recovery appears to have stalled, due to weak refining margins, a lack of recovery in jet fuel demand, and uncertainties over global economic growth, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Director for Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, said earlier this week.

In a sign that demand recovery is faltering, the world’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for crude oil for October.

“Clearly this suggests that the market is not tightening as quickly as many had anticipated, with supply edging higher, and with demand clearly faltering,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Tuesday.