美国石油钻探活动从低谷开始回升

据路透社9月3日报道，美国石油业可能在7月和8月度过了低谷期，9月或10月钻井速度将开始上升，2021年3月或4月产量将开始回升。

自4月底触及低点以来，美国原油期货近月价格在过去19周逐步上涨。在过去的30年里，随着期货价格的变化，钻井活动的变化通常会平均延迟4-5个月(15-20周)，产量的变化通常会延迟9-12个月。

价格变化导致的钻井延迟，可以解释为企业重新评估钻井计划、钻机合约、将其移至井场、安装并开始钻探所需的时间。由于达到目标井深、封井、固井、压裂、安装井口设备、流量测试、将油井连接到集油系统以及开始商业生产等方面的时间需要，产量的最终变化还会进一步推迟。

每一口井和每一个周期都略有不同，但在过去三十年的期货价格周期中，钻井速度和产量呈现出一种固定的顺序和标准的滞后期限。

鉴于油价在19周前跌至周期性低点，此后又翻了一番，很可能钻井速度现在已经接近或超过了当前周期的低点。事实上，据油田服务公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)的数据，上周美国有180个钻井平台在钻探石油，高于两周前172个钻井平台的当前周期低点。

在3月中旬至7月中旬期间，活跃的石油钻井平台数量下降了近75%，但在过去七周内基本稳定，这可能表明钻井周期的最低点已经到来。

今年最后几个月，随着4月份以来的油价上涨开始渗透到商业决策和合同中，钻井平台数量可能会开始呈上升趋势。相比之下，产量可能会持续下降几个月，直到2020年底或2021年初，然后再次回升。

自然产量下降将减少在疫情爆发前开始生产的油井的产量，而自疫情爆发后钻井速度下降意味着产量不会完全被取代。最终，更高的价格和更高的钻井速度将导致新产量弥补旧产量的损失，总产量将企稳并开始回升。

确切的时间显然取决于价格走势，但产出最可能触底回升的时间是2020年第四季度末或2021年第一季度。

自4月份以来的油价上涨表明，将需要更多的钻井活动和更多的新油井产量来稳定产量，并提供必要的现金流。近几周来，美国原油期货价格一直稳定在每桶40至45美元左右，这一表明，在这一区间产出将保持稳定。但如果油价继续攀升至每桶50美元或更高水平，钻井速度将进一步加快，从2021年下半年开始，产量将有更大的增长。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Column: U.S. oil drilling set to start rising after cycle turns

The U.S. oil industry probably passed the low point in the current cycle in July and August, with drilling rates set to start increasing from September or October and production turning up from March or April 2021.

Since hitting a low in late April, when the coronavirus epidemic was raging and lockdowns were most stringent, front-month U.S. oil futures prices have progressively risen for the last 19 weeks.

Over the last 30 years, changes in futures prices have typically been followed by changes in drilling with an average delay of 4-5 months (15-20 weeks) and changes in output with an overall delay of 9-12 months.

The delay from changes in prices to drilling can be explained by the time needed for businesses to re-evaluate drilling programmes, contract rigs, move them to the well site, rig them up and start boring.

Further delays to final changes in production are due to the time needed to reach target well depth, case and cement the well, fracture the formation, install wellhead equipment, flow test, link the well up to gathering systems and start commercial output.

Every well and every cycle is slightly different, but in the last three decades cycles in futures prices, drilling rates and production have followed each other in a standard sequence with fairly standard lags.

Given that oil prices hit a cyclical low 19 weeks ago, doubling in the meantime, it is very likely drilling rates are now near or beyond their low point for the current cycle (tmsnrt.rs/3jQFqj9).

In fact, there were 180 rigs drilling for oil last week in the United States, up from a current-cycle low of 172 two weeks earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

The number of active oil rigs has been broadly stable for the last seven weeks, after plunging almost 75% between mid-March and mid-July, which may indicate the low point of the drilling cycle has been reached.

The rig count is likely to start trending higher over the last few months of the year as the rise in oil prices since April starts to filter through into business decisions and contracting.

By contrast, production is likely to continue trending lower for several months more until the end of 2020 or early 2021 before turning higher again.

Natural declines will reduce output from wells that started producing before the epidemic, while the reduced rate of drilling since then means it will not be completely replaced.

Eventually, higher prices and higher drilling rates will cause new production to make up for the loss of old output and total production will stabilise and start increasing again.

The precise timing obviously depends on the course of prices, but the most likely time frame for output to hit a trough and turn higher is towards the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 or in the first quarter of 2021.

The rise in prices since April is a signal more drilling and more new well output will be needed to stabilise production and will provide the necessary cash flow.

The fact U.S. oil futures prices have been steadying around $40-45 per barrel in recent weeks indicates this is the range expected to stabilise output.

But if prices continue climbing to $50 or more, drilling will accelerate further, generating a larger production increase from the second half of 2021 onwards.