IHS Markit上调今明两年布伦特原油均价预测

据美国钻井网站2020年8月7日报道，全球商业咨询服务多元化供应商IHS Markit日前把今明两年布伦特原油的平均价格预测分别上调到了每桶42.35美元和每桶49.25美元，比其5月份的预测每桶分别上涨了7.09美元和5.25美元。

IHS Markit日前在发给美国钻井网站的一份声明中表示，石油市场已回到“相对稳定的位置”，布伦特原油价格在每桶40-45美元的窄幅区间内排徊。

IHS Markit补充说，除非“大量的”第二波病例导致广泛的经济封闭，其预计布伦特原油的平均价格将保持在40美元至47美元，平均起来，在未来4个季度，这种大宗商品的价格“最终”可能在2021年下半年突破每桶50美元。

IHS Markit指出，石油市场目前正处于一个“微妙的转折点”，正在向IHS Markit在5月份强调的3个复苏阶段中的第2个复苏阶段过渡。根据IHS Markit的数据，在第2个复苏阶段中，全球过剩的原油库存被减少，而供应也随着备用供应产能的恢复而增加。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

IHS Markit Raises Oil Price Forecast|

IHS Markit has raised its average Brent price outlook to $42.35 per barrel in 2020 and $49.25 per barrel in 2021 – an increase of $7.09 per barrel and $5.25 per barrel, respectively, from the company’s May outlook.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on Thursday, IHS Markit said oil markets had returned to “relatively stable ground” with Brent prices within a narrow $40 to $45 per barrel range. The company added that, barring a “large” second wave of Covid-19 cases driving widespread economic shutdowns, it expects Brent will stay within a $40 to $47 per barrel range, on average, over the next four quarters and projected that the commodity could “conclusively” pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021.

IHS Markit noted that oil markets are now at a “delicate pivot point” as they transition to phase two of the three phases of recovery the company highlighted back in May. According to IHS Markit, phase two is a phase in which surplus inventories are worked down in parallel with rising supply as spare supply capacity returns.