2040年亚太地区石油需求将增长25%

据伍德曼肯兹官网7月28日报道，最新报告显示，预计2020年亚太地区的石油产品需求将同比下降180万桶/天，且亚洲的石油需求增长还有很长的路要走。到2040年，该地区的石油需求预计将较2019年增长900万桶/天(25%)，达到4480万桶/天。

疫情不确定性和悲观的经济前景将在短期内对亚太地区的石油需求和炼油行业产生影响。但从长远来看，未来对流动性和石化产品的需求将继续保持强劲。到2040年，该地区的石油需求将占全球石油需求增长的一半以上。

伍德曼肯兹研究主管Sushant Gupta表示:“尽管需求持续增长，但未来20年的增长速度不到过去20年的一半，这主要是因为燃油效率的提高、电动汽车的普及以及运输部门的石油需求减少。”

石油需求增长也越来越依赖石化原料，从2019年到2040年，这一数字可能会增加500万桶/天。中国在这一增长中占了很大一部分，原因是蒸汽裂解技术的扩大，以及丙烷脱氢(PDH)和芳烃生产能力的增长。

因此，亚洲炼油厂面临的最大挑战是，要满足石化原料供应的日益短缺。今年，将看到近300万桶/天的原料短缺，但到2027年，这个数字可能会增长到380万桶/天。中东作为亚洲石油化工原料供应大户，将无法完全满足亚洲的需求，预计，亚洲对美国和欧洲等市场的进口将日益增长

随着石化原料日益短缺和对汽油的需求不断增长，从长远来看，亚洲也可能出现结构性汽油短缺。在2019年至2040年间，汽油需求将增加近200万桶/天。除非建立更多的炼油产能，否则石化原料和汽油将继续短缺。

相比之下，随着中国柴油和汽油需求增长放缓，预计该地区的柴油和汽油将出现大量过剩，到2027年将达到150万桶/天。

总体看来，亚洲面临着双重挑战，一方面要满足轻质馏分油的短缺，另一方面要为过剩的中间馏分油找到出口市场。这种不平衡意味着炼油商需要重新考虑他们的出口市场，未来的炼油能力和配置，以及未来石化原料的类型。

亚洲的产品平衡与欧洲相反——轻质馏分油进口国和中型馏分油出口国。因此，两者之间存在天然的协同作用，但挑战在于它们地理位置相距较远。但是，亚洲的贸易逆差为东西方的贸易进一步增长提供了机会，以满足亚洲日益增长的部分需求。

为了配合向石化行业的转变，亚洲许多炼油商正朝着与化工行业更深层次整合的方向迈进。Gupta补充道，综合工厂应该找到一个在原料生产和原料转化为化学品方面具有竞争力的最佳区域。

从长期来看，亚太地区需要更多的炼油产能来满足需求，但预计所需的新增产能增长率仅为过去20年的一半。伍德曼肯兹预计，长期而言，炼油利润率将回升，这将支持亚洲的炼油产能投资，但亚洲的过度建设将意味着欧洲的炼油产能将进一步合理化。

而随着亚洲需求增长中心从中国向印度和东南亚转移，这些地区将需要率先建设新的炼油产能。

王佳晶 摘译自 伍德曼肯兹官网

原文如下：

Asia Pacific’s oil demand to fall in 2020 but could rise 25% by 2040

According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, oil products demand in Asia Pacific is expected to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year in 2020. But oil demand growth in Asia has still a long way to run. By 2040, the region’s oil demand is expected to rise by 25% (9 million b/d) to 44.8 million b/d compared to 2019.

Covid-19 and a pessimistic economic outlook will have a near-term impact on oil demand and the refining sector in Asia Pacific. But in the long-run, demand continues to be robust driven by a future demand for mobility and petrochemicals. The region will account for over half of global oil demand growth by 2040.

Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said: Although demand continues to grow, the rate of growth in the next 20 years is less than half that of the past 20 years, primarily because of higher fuel efficiency, penetration of electric vehicles and displacement of oil in the transport sector.

“Oil demand growth is also increasingly reliant on petrochemical feedstocks, which could grow by over 5 million b/d from 2019 to 2040. China accounts for the bulk of this growth, because of an expansion in steam cracking and growth in propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and aromatics production capacities.

“So, the big challenge for refiners in Asia is to meet the growing deficit in petrochemical feedstocks. This year we will see close to 3 million b/d of feedstock shortage, but by 2027 this deficit could grow to 3.8 million b/d. Middle-East, which is a traditional exporter of petrochemical feedstocks to Asia, will not be able to meet the shortages in Asia fully, and we expect a growing reliance on imports from long-haul markets such as US and Europe.”

With a growing shortage of petrochemical feedstock and a growing demand for gasoline, Asia could also see a structural shortage of gasoline in the long run. Gasoline demand rises by close to 2 million b/d between 2019 and 2040. Unless additional refinery capacity and appropriate refinery configurations are built to focus on light-products, both petrochemical feedstocks and gasoline will continue to be short.

In contrast, as diesel/gasoil demand growth in China slows down, the region is expected to see a large surplus of diesel/gasoil, reaching 1.5 million b/d by 2027.

Gupta said: “Asia faces a dual challenge of meeting its shortages of light-products and finding export markets for its surplus middle-distillates. This imbalance means refiners need to rethink on their export markets, future refinery capacity and configurations, and the future types of petrochemical feedstocks.

“Overall, Asia’s product balances are opposite to Europe – light-distillate importer and middle-distillate exporter - so there is a natural synergy, with the challenge being their geographical separation. But, deficits in Asia present opportunities for West to East trade to grow further and meet part of Asia’s growing demand.”

To align with a shift towards petrochemicals, many refiners in Asia are moving towards a deeper integration with chemicals. Gupta added that a successful integrated site should find an optimal zone where the site is competitive for feedstock generation and for converting feedstock into chemicals.

In the long run, Asia Pacific needs more refining capacity to meet demand, but the required rate of capacity additions is expected to be half that of the past 20 years. Wood Mackenzie expects refining margins to recover in the longer term to support refinery capacity investments in Asia, but an over-build in Asia will mean more rationalisation in Europe.

Finally, as the demand growth centres in Asia shift from China to India and Southeast Asia, these regions will be required to take the lead in building new refining capacity.