巴克莱预计布伦特原油明年将达到53美元/桶

据油气新闻网7月23日伦敦报道，英国跨国投资银行和金融服务公司巴克莱（Barclays）在其最新的大宗商品研究报告中称，预计布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油的价格2021年将分别达到每桶53美元和50美元。

巴克莱在报告中补充道，我们建议在2021年7月使用35美元/桶和45美元/桶的布伦特期权进行逆差价交易。

该报告称，油价已经从今年第二季度初的低点大幅反弹，但最近布伦特原油价格在40-45美元/桶区间内巩固，略低于有利于美国致密油活动的“窄幅波动”。

需求的部分回升以及自愿性和非自愿性的供给调整，以及美元疲软的支持，使得供需重新平衡的速度超过了预期，从而支持了这一反弹。

报告称，然而，在我们看来，就基本面而言，我们还没有达到下一轮上涨的水平。如果需求复苏进一步放缓，特别是在美国，短期内可能会出现一些修正。

郝芬 译自 油气新闻网

原文如下：

Brent price forecast to hit $53 in 2021: Barclays

Brent and WTI prices are expected to reach $53 per barrel (/b) and $50/b respectively in 2021, said Barclays, a British multinational investment bank and financial services company in its latest Commodities Research report.

“We recommend a call backspread trade with $35/b and $45/b Brent July 2021 options,” Barclays added in the report.

Oil prices have bounced back sharply from their lows in the early second quarter (Q2) of the year but recently have been consolidating in the $40-45/b range for the Brent, just shy of the ‘tight range’ conducive for higher US tight oil activity, the report said.

The rally is supported by a faster-than-expected rebalancing of supply and demand, aided by a partial recovery in demand and voluntary and involuntary supply adjustments, bolstered by a weaker trade-weighted USD.

“However, we are not there yet in terms of fundamentals for the next leg higher, in our view, and could potentially see some correction over the near term if demand recovery slows further, especially in the US,” the report said.