IEA：今年全球炼油活动降幅可能超过6月预期

据世界石油巴黎报道，国际能源署(IEA)日前上调了其对今年全球石油需求的预测，但同时警告称，疫情的蔓延对未来全球石油需求前景构成了风险。但IEA表示，今年全球炼油活动的降幅将超过其6月份的预期，而明年的增幅将低于预期。

总部位于巴黎的IEA把今年全球原油日需求预估上调到了9210万桶，比其6月预估增加了40万桶，IEA称第二季度全球石油需求的降幅小于预期。

IEA在其月度报告中表示：“尽管石油市场在需求方面毫无疑问取得了进展，但全球新冠肺炎确证病例数量庞大，在一些国家还在不断增加，这令人不安的前景在提醒我们，疫情尚未得到控制，它对我们市场前景的风险几乎肯定是下行的。”

IEA表示，许多国家放松封锁措施，已导致全球5月和6月燃料供应强劲反弹，7月可能也会出现反弹。

但IEA表示，今年全球的炼油活动降幅将超过其在6月份的预期，而明年的增幅将低于预期。

由于航空旅行的减少，明年全球石油需求可能会比去年低260万桶/天，其中煤油和航空燃油需求减少占到这个数字的四分之三。

对炼油商而言，需求改善带来的任何好处，都很可能被未来原料市场将严重吃紧的预期所抵消。今年第二季度需求非常疲弱，导致大量成品油库存过剩，炼油利润率也将受到挑战。

在供应方面，IEA说，欧佩克和包括俄罗斯在内的其他产油国减产协议的履行率已达到108%。

尽管美国原油供应预计将在今年下半年缓慢恢复以及解除利比亚原油出口不可抗力在今年年底前将给全球市场另外日增90万桶原油，然而，市场驱动的削减产量也影响到了其他石油生产国，特别是美国。

李峻 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA raises 2020 oil demand forecast but oil refining may fall more than IEA anticipates

The International Energy Agency (IEA) bumped up its 2020 oil demand forecast on Friday but warned that the spread of COVID-19 posed a risk to the outlook. But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast to 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from its outlook last month, citing a smaller-than-expected second-quarter decline.

"While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress ... the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of COVID-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside," the IEA said in its monthly report.

The easing of lockdown measures in many countries caused a strong rebound to fuel deliveries in May, June and likely also July, the IEA said.

But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

Demand in 2021 will likely be 2.6 million bpd below 2019 levels, with kerosene and jet fuel due to a drop in air travel accounting for three-quarters of the shortfall.

"For refiners, any benefit from improving demand is likely to be offset by expectations of much tighter feedstock markets ahead. Refining margins will also be challenged by a major product stocks overhang from the very weak second quarter of 2020," the IEA said.

On the supply front, the IEA said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had shown 108% compliance with their pact to rein in output.

Market driven cuts had also affected other producers, especially the United States, though U.S. supply was expected to slowly recover in the second half of 2020 while the lifting of force majeure on exports of Libyan crude could add another 900,000 bpd to global markets by the end of the year.