Rystad ：2021年将有7个FPSO项目获批

据油田技术7月10日报道，Rystad Energy认为，受五年内第二次行业低迷的打击，随着勘探和生产企业削减预算和活动，2020年全球浮式液化天然气生产储卸装置（FPSO）项目可能仅有一个。到明年FPSO项目将会复苏，有七个项目可能会被批准。

Modec在2020年赢得了迄今为止唯一一份合同，并将为Woodside在塞内加尔的Sangomar开发项目提供一个新的FPSO。该船将是第一艘在塞内加尔运营的浮式生产储油船，将以交钥匙方式提供，其上部结构能够处理10万桶/天的石油和1.3亿立方英尺/天的天然气。Rystad Energy估计，Sangomar一期的绿地资本支出总额约为42亿美元。

在2020年剩余时间内，Rystad预计不会有任何新的FPSO合同被授予。在过去10年中，只有2016年的活动水平较低，当时没有一个FPSO合同被授予。然而，从2016年开始，在2017年至2019年的三年时间里，活动迅速反弹，共获得27个合同。

Rystad energy的能源研究分析师Aleksander Erstad表示："我们预计将有七个FPSO项目迅速获得批准，其中包括巴西的Bacalhau和Mero 3，以及圭亚那的Payara项目。"

除了新的FPSO合同外，第二季度还披露了三份租船合同修正案。第一份合同修正案是针对Altera Infrastructure公司的，该公司自2015年起与壳牌公司签订合同。修正案将租期从2021年3月延长至2022年3月。根据之前的协议，如果壳牌公司在2025年之前终止合同，壳牌公司将支付罚款。现在，这一终止处罚已被取消，以换取新的生产和石油价格关税。由于低油价损害了油田的盈利能力，日利率也将从2021年3月开始下降。现在看来，壳牌可能会在几年后关闭油田。2019年，Knarr的产量平均为12000桶/天。

邹勤 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Rystad Energy forecasts seven FPSO awards in 2021

Hit by the second industry downturn in five years, global awards for FPSO vessels will likely be limited to a single unit in 2020, Rystad Energy believes, as exploration and production firms slash budgets and activity. Similar to the previous downturn, awards are set to recover next year, with seven projects likely to be sanctioned.

Modec won the only contract so far awarded in 2020 and will supply a new-built FPSO for Woodside’s Sangomar development in Senegal. The vessel, which will be the first FPSO to operate in Senegal, will be supplied on a turnkey basis and feature topsides capable of handling 100 000 bpd of oil and 130 million ft3/d of gas. Rystad Energy estimates that the total greenfield CAPEX for Sangomar phase 1 will be around US$4.2 billion.

For the remainder of 2020, Rystad does not expect to see any new FPSO contracts being awarded. Over the last 10 years, only 2016 saw a lower level of activity when not a single FPSO contract was awarded. However, from 2016 activity quickly rebounded with 27 awards in the three-year period from 2017 to 2019.

“This time too, we expect to see a speedy comeback in FPSO sanctioning with seven projects expected next year, including Bacalhau and Mero 3 in Brazil and Payara (Prosperity) in Guyana,” said Aleksander Erstad, energy research analyst in Rystad Energy.

Aside from new FPSO contracts, three charter contract amendments were disclosed in 2Q20.

The first contract amendment was for Altera Infrastructure’s (previously Teekay Offshore) Petrojarl Knarr, which has been on contract with Shell since 2015. The amendment extends the charter period from March 2021 to March 2022. Under the previous agreement, Shell would pay a penalty if they terminated the contract before 2025. Now, this termination penalty has been removed in return for a new production and an oil price tariff. The day-rate is also set to fall from March 2021 as low oil prices hurt the field’s profitability. It now seems likely that Shell will shut down the field a few years down the road. Liquids production at Knarr averaged 12 000 bpd in 2019.