石油市场复苏受到燃料需求疲软冲击

据今日油价7月9日报道，由于疫情继续蔓延，美国部分地区的汽油需求似乎正在减弱。受感染人数激增影响最严重的州也是一些石油消费规模最大的州，有数千万名司机。美国大部分地区的汽油消费继续出现小幅上升。

截至6月19日当周，美国汽油需求回升至每日860万桶，高于4月初的每日500万桶低点。但到6月底，需求略有下滑。周三，EIA报告称需求再次上升，尽管该报告的积极影响被原油库存的上升所抵消。目前，美国汽油日需求量仍比去年低约100万桶。

在世界其他地区，经济继续反弹。德国的工业活动在6月份加快了步伐，前几个月的严格封锁大幅降低了每天的感染人数，一些经济体基本上已经重新开放。

但是美国很多地区在没有真正控制住病毒的情况下试图恢复“正常”。JBC能源公司在周二的一份报告中写道:“目前对美国病例总数做出乐观判断还为时过早，尤其是德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州，昨天已经超过300万。”

疫情还在印度和巴西以及世界其他地区继续传播， JBC补充道："全球现有确诊病例约为450万，且没有放缓迹象，我们的能源产品，尤其是汽油的需求预期面临越来越大的下行风险。”

一天前，该能源公司下调了对美国汽油需求的预期，称复苏“越来越值得怀疑”。JBC称："我们预计需求的下滑幅度将在7月底缓慢增强，较之前的基本预期减少35万桶/天。”

渣打银行表示，目前的原油价格“包含了很多乐观情绪”。可以肯定的是，石油产量的急剧下降使市场吃紧。市场的供需平衡不再是1亿桶/天，而是在一个少10%的水平上“平衡”。实际上，7月份的日均需求可能在8900万桶左右，而供应量只有8800万桶。据Rystad Energy称，石油市场现在已经达到了一个新的“低水平平衡”状态。

但即使目前石油市场的生产量小于需求，仍然存在大量库存积压，而且病毒还可能导致市场再次陷入低迷状态。渣打银行分析师在一份报告中写道:“我们认为，经济正常化需要很长时间，目前需求数据的下滑以及需求预估再度下调，将使这一过程更加漫长。”

世行补充称，库存过剩将持续到2022年，但这实际上取决于欧佩克+是否会继续坚持减产。

EIA公布了最新的短期能源展望，上调了对汽油需求的预期。该机构目前预计，2020年的汽油消费量将比2019年减少210万桶/天，比6月份预期的减少230万桶/天略有上调。但如果美国再次陷入低迷，这种乐观的前景将面临风险。

”Rystad Energy的石油市场分析师Louise Dickson在一份声明中表示：“如果原油库存现在继续增加，而限制措施放松，交易员们担心，如果再次出现严重的封锁态势，需求将会如何，毕竟，石油库存已经处于相当高的水平。”

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Oil Market Recovery Threatened By Weaker Fuel Demand

Gasoline demand appears to be weakening in some parts of the United States, as the coronavirus continues to spread. The states hardest hit by the surging number of infections are also some of the largest, with tens of millions of drivers. Much of the country continues to see a slight uptick in gasoline consumption.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. climbed back to 8.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the week ending on June 19, up from a low of 5 mb/d in early April. But demand slipped a bit by the end of June as the virus began to spread at a faster clip. On Wednesday, the EIA reported another increase in demand, although the report was offset by a rise in crude inventories, and the slightly muddying caveat that it was a holiday weekend. Gasoline demand is still roughly 1 mb/d below last year’s levels.

In other parts of the world, economies continue to rebound. Germany’s industrial activity picked up pace in June. Strict lockdowns in prior months helped dramatically lower the number of daily infections, and some economies have largely reopened.

But many parts of the U.S. have tried to return to “normal” without ever really getting the virus under control. JBC Energy wrote in a note on Tuesday.

The virus also continues to spread in India and Brazil, among other parts of the world. “With global active cases globally slightly less than 4.5 million and showing no sign of a slowdown, we are increasingly seeing downside risk to our total product (particularly gasoline) demand forecast,” JBC added.

A day earlier, the energy firm cut its forecast for U.S. gasoline demand, calling the recovery “increasingly questionable.” Draconian lockdowns were unlikely, as there is almost no political appetite for strict stay-at-home orders, but nevertheless, the spread of the virus will take a toll as governments implement some restrictions and people voluntarily stay home. “[W]e expect demand declines to strengthen moderately through July,” with demand down by 350,000 bpd relative to a prior base case, JBC said.

Others saw a similar negative turn. Standard Chartered said that current crude oil prices “contain a lot of optimism.”

To be sure, the sharp decline in oil production has tightened up the market. Instead of supply and demand balancing at 100 mb/d, the market is now “balanced” at a level that is 10 percent smaller. In fact, demand could average around 89 mb/d in July, with supply at only 88 mb/d. The oil market has now reached a new “balance at the bottom,” according to Rystad Energy.

But even if the oil market is technically in a deficit, there is still a massive inventory overhang and the threat of another downturn because of the virus. “[W]e think normalisation is going take a long time, and the current drift down in demand data and a renewed drift down in demand forecasts will make that process even longer,” Standard Chartered analysts wrote in a note.

The inventory overhang would last until 2022, the bank added, but that really hinges on OPEC+ sticking with the production cuts until then.

The EIA put out its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it revised up its estimate for gasoline demand. It now sees 2020 gasoline consumption declining by 2.1 mb/d relative to 2019 levels, a slight improvement from June’s estimate of demand being down 2.3 mb/d.

But that sunnier outlook is at risk if the U.S. suffers another downturn.

“If crude stocks are growing now, while restrictions are loose, traders worry about what will happen to demand in the case serious lockdowns come back again. Stocks are already at quite high levels,” Louise Dickson, oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a statement.