EIA上调布伦特原油价格预测

据今日油价网站7月7日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）将2020年下半年布伦特原油价格预期上调至每桶41美元，比EIA上月的预测高出4美元。

在其短期能源展望中，预计全球石油库存将在下半年和明年全年继续下降。

EIA在月报摘要中称：“EIA预计未来几个月高库存水平和剩余原油产能将限制价格上涨压力，但随着库存下降到2021年，这些价格上涨压力将增加。”

EIA预测全球液体燃料库存在2020年上半年将以670万桶/日的速度增长，然后在2020年下半年以330万桶/日的速度下降。最后，在2021年，EIA预计库存将进一步下降110万桶/日。

EIA预计，今明两年美国石油产量将下降，WTI价格将在明年保持在每桶50美元以下。EIA的预期是，美国今年的石油平均日产量将为1160万桶，明年将为1100万桶/日，与去年平均1220万桶/日相比有所下降。EIA预计，从2019年起，美国液体燃料消耗量将平均下降210万桶/日，至1830万桶/日。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

EIA Raises Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook

The Energy Information Administration raised its price outlook for Brent crude to $41 per barrel for the second half of 2020—this is $4 per barrel higher than the EIA’s forecast last month.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook expectation that global oil inventories will continue to decline in the second half of the year and throughout next year.

“EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase,” the EIA said in a summary of its monthly report.

Specifically, the EIA is forecasting that global liquid fuel inventories will rise at a rate of 6.7 million bpd in H1 2020, and then decline at a rate of 3.3 million bpd in H2 2020. Finally, in 2021, the EIA expects that inventories will decline further by 1.1 million bpd.

The EIA expects U.S. oil production to fall this year and next, with WTI prices sitting below $50 per barrel through next year. The EIA’s expectation is that oil production in the United States will average 11.6 million barrels per day this year, and 11.0 million bpd next year. This is off from an average of 12.2 million bpd last year. The EIA expects U.S. liquid fuels consumption to fall this year by an average of 2.1 million bpd from 2019, to 18.3 million bpd.