俄罗斯预计全球石油投资将下降三分之一

据今日油价7月3日报道，俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大?诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)周四在一个网络会议上表示，受当前经济和石油需求的影响，今年全球石油投资将减少三分之一。

诺瓦克指出，在4月形势最严重时，全球需求锐减25%-28%，即每日减少2800万桶，并指出欧佩克+减产协议有助于市场再平衡。这位俄罗斯部长称，这种平衡，甚至亏损，可能会在本月达到。

诺瓦克对市场再平衡和石油行业投资的看法与分析人士和国际组织的评估一致。

国际能源机构(IEA)在今年5月发布的《2020年世界能源投资报告》中表示，当前形势将导致能源投资出现创纪录的年度降幅——近4000亿美元。该机构估计，今年石油和天然气行业的投资降幅将最大。2020年油气投资将比2019年减少2441亿美元，减少近三分之一。

国际能源署在其报告中表示:“页岩气行业已经面临压力，投资者的信心和获取资本的渠道已经枯竭:预计2020年对页岩气的投资将下降50%。石油行业投资的大幅削减可能导致石油市场比此前预期的更为紧张。”

Rystad Energy预计，2020年全球在上游石油项目上的投资将同比下降29%，降至3830亿美元，其中页岩油的投资将受到最大冲击，下降52.2%，至673亿美元。

Rystad Energy的上游分析师Olga Savenkova上个月表示：“由于这一影响将比上一次经济衰退时期更为严重，企业正极力捍卫股东价值，并在近期转向更为保守的支出策略。随着全球上游行业面临低价、需求下降和汇率波动的挑战，每一次美元降价都将使市场受到沉重打击。”。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER: GLOBAL OIL INVESTMENT TO DROP BY ONE-THIRD

Global investment in oil is set to plunge by one-third this year due to the coronavirus and its effect on economies and oil demand, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at an online conference on Thursday.

At the peak of the pandemic in April, global demand crashed by 25-28 percent, or by 28 million barrels per day (bpd), Novak said, noting that the new OPEC+ production cut agreement is helping the market rebalance. That balance, and even a deficit, could be reached this month, the Russian minister said.

Novak’s views on the market rebalancing and investments in the oil industry echo assessments of analysts and international organizations.

The COVID-19 pandemic will result in the biggest annual drop in energy investments on record—nearly US$400 billion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Investment 2020 report in May.

The oil and gas sector will see the steepest decline in investment this year compared to last year, the IEA has estimated. Investment in oil and gas is set to plunge by US$244.1 billion, or by nearly one-third, in 2020 compared to 2019.

“The shale industry was already under pressure, and investor confidence and access to capital has now dried up: investment in shale is anticipated to fall by 50% in 2020,” the IEA said in its report.

The slashed investments in the oil industry could lead to a tighter oil market than previously anticipated, according to the IEA.

Rystad Energy expects global spending on upstream oil projects to plunge by 29 percent year on year to US$383 billion in 2020, with investments in shale taking the biggest hit and plummeting by 52.2 percent to US$67.3 billion.

“As the impact will be more severe than in the previous downturn, companies are fiercely defending shareholder value and pivoting towards more conservative spending strategies in the near-term. As the global upstream sector contends with low prices, falling demand, and fluctuating exchange rates, every dollar cut will strike directly to the bone,” Rystad Energy’s upstream analyst Olga Savenkova said last month.