海上石油储量开始减少

据油价网7月1日报道，航运业消息人士周三对路透表示，由于需求复苏和石油市场结构变化，海上石油储量已开始减少，预计今年下半年将继续下滑。

根据路透援引IHS Markit的数据显示，截至6月底，原油浮动储存量从4月的高达1.8亿桶降至1.5亿桶以下，当时全球石油日需求锐减3,000万桶。IHS Markit对路透表示，海上成品油储量也从5月中旬接近7,500万桶的峰值降至5,000万桶。

根据国际能源署(IEA)的估计，5月原油浮动储存量从4月的历史高点1.722亿桶下降640万桶，至1.658亿桶。

根据彭博社（Bloomberg）的估计显示，6月初，随着大多数欧洲国家解除封锁，北海石油的浮动存储量开始减少。

除了石油需求从4月份的低迷水平上升外，最近几周石油价格的市场结构也发生了变化，使得海上石油储备——4月份石油行业最赚钱的交易——在财务上不再可行。

布伦特原油期货曲线从4月的超级远期溢价开始趋平，并在最近几个月转为现货溢价，这消除了石油交易机构在石油需求崩溃时从价格结构中获利的最重要的财务动机。在超级期货溢价中，近月价格远低于未来几个月的价格，表明原油供应过剩，为未来销售而储存石油有利可图。

6月中旬，减产和石油需求上升帮助布伦特原油价格结构转向现货溢价，显示现货石油市场趋紧。

现货溢价是在市场亏损时通常发生的市场状况。在现货溢价中，近月合约的价格高于远月合约的价格。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Glut At Sea Starts To Shrink

The huge volumes of oil held at sea have started to shrink and are expected to continue declining into the second half of this year, thanks to recovering demand and a change in the oil market structure, shipping sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

According to data from IHS Markit, cited by Reuters, crude oil in floating storage dropped to below 150 million barrels by the end of June, from as high as 180 million barrels in April, when global oil demand crashed by 30 million barrels per day (bpd). The volume of refined oil products held at sea also dropped—to 50 million barrels, from a peak of nearly 75 million barrels in the middle of May, IHS Markit told Reuters.

According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), floating storage of crude oil dropped in May by 6.4 million barrels to 165.8 million barrels, from its all-time high of 172.2 million barrels in April.

Estimates by Bloomberg showed earlier in June that floating storage of North Sea oil had started to shrink as most of Europe lifted their lockdowns.

Apart from oil demand rising from the depressed levels in April, the market structure of oil prices has changed in recent weeks, making storing oil at sea – the most profitable play in oil in April – no longer financially viable.

From a super contango in April, the Brent Crude futures curve has flattened and flipped to backwardation for the nearest months, wiping out the most significant financial incentive for oil trading houses to profit from the price structure when oil demand crashes. In the super contango, front-month prices were much lower than prices in future months, pointing to a crude oil oversupply and making storing oil for future sales profitable.

In the middle of June, production cuts and an uptick in oil demand helped the Brent Crude price structure flip to backwardation, signaling a tightening of the physical oil market.

Backwardation – the opposite of contango – is the market situation that typically occurs at times of market deficit. In backwardation, prices for front-month contracts are higher than the ones further out in time.