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印尼液化天然气进口将继续上升

作者: 2020年07月03日 来源:中国石化新闻网 浏览量:
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据天然气资讯6月30日消息称,据Wood Mackenzie报道,印尼的LNG进口预计将从冠状病毒引发的全球经济低迷中恢复。

据天然气资讯6月30日消息称,据Wood Mackenzie报道,印尼的LNG进口预计将从冠状病毒引发的全球经济低迷中恢复。

该国2020年下半年LNG进口量可能达到310万吨,同比增长120万吨,增幅63%。

尽管由于节后旺季的第一季度增长缓慢,但印尼的LNG消费量从2020年第二季度开始持续增长,达到110万吨。管道天然气的减少和较低的现货价格可能支撑了印尼的LNG需求。

政府最近还出台了一系列法规,旨在将七个关键行业和电力部门的国内天然气价格降低至每百万英热单位6美元。希望这些措施将提高工业竞争力,特别是出口方面的竞争力,并产生乘数效应。

首席分析师Lucy Cullen最近在Wood Mackenzie的印度尼西亚虚拟能源论坛上发表讲话说:“印尼的情况总体上与亚洲的前景一致。今年该地区的LNG进口量将达到2.5亿吨,比去年增加2.5%,到2025年可能达到3.15亿吨。到2040年,亚洲将占全球LNG消费量的40%,而印尼及其东南亚邻国将成为这一增长的关键引擎。

“我们预计,未来几年,LNG将在印尼天然气供应中占据越来越大的份额,这将为LNG采购和再气化基础设施建设提供机遇。但为了平衡不断增长的消费,印尼还需要关注国内,解决产量下降的问题。”

虽然Tangguh LNG第一阶段表现出色,去年交付了117批货物,但第二阶段扩建预计将面临延期。在LNG EPC的主要承包商Chiyoda表示难以如期完成该项目后,BP于2019年宣布首次将项目推迟一年。该项目还面临着将劳动力和材料转移到工厂偏远地区的挑战,而印尼东部的海啸活动增加了所需的现场准备工作量。

根据Wood Mackenzie的能源市场,在过去几年中,在一次能源需求中,印度天然气所占的份额约为12-13%。

Cullen表示:“发电成本和满足不断增长的电力需求是印尼的关键。尽管煤炭价格会一直更便宜,但从长远来看,更低的天然气价格是否会鼓励天然气在能源结构中发挥更大的作用,并最终加速国家能源转型,将是一件有趣的事情。”

曹海斌 摘译自 天然气资讯

Indonesia’s LNG imports continue to rise

Indonesia’s LNG imports are expected to be resilient against the coronavirus-led global economic downturn, reports Wood Mackenzie.

The country’s 2H20 LNG imports could hit 3.1 million t, a 1.2 million t or 63% increase year-on-year.

Despite a slow first quarter due to post-holiday season, Indonesia’s LNG consumption has continued to rise from 2Q20 at 1.1 million t. Reduced pipeline gas and low spot prices were likely to have supported Indonesia’s LNG demand.

The government has also recently introduced a set of regulations aimed at lowering domestic gas price to US$6/million Btu for seven key industries and the electricity sector. It is hoped that the measures would improve industrial competitiveness, especially for exports, and create multiplier effects.

Speaking recently at Wood Mackenzie’s Indonesia Virtual Energy Forum, Principal Analyst Lucy Cullen said: “The story of Indonesia is consistent with Asia’s outlook at large. The region’s LNG imports will reach 250 million t this year, a 2.5% increase compared to last year, and could hit 315 million t in 2025. By 2040, Asia will account for 40% of global LNG consumption with Indonesia and its Southeast Asian neighbours being key engines of this growth.

“We expect LNG to make up a growing share of Indonesia’s gas supply mix in the years ahead, offering opportunities for LNG procurement and regasification infrastructure development. But to balance rising consumption, Indonesia also needs to look inwards to address declining production.”

While Tangguh LNG Phase 1 showed strong performance with 117 cargoes delivered last year, the Phase 2 expansion is expected to face delays. In 2019, BP announced a first delay by a year after the LNG EPC lead-contractor Chiyoda signalled difficulties completing the project on schedule. The project also faced challenges moving labour and materials to the remote location of the plant, while tsunami activity in Eastern Indonesia added to the amount of site preparation work required.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Markets Tool gas’ share of total primary energy demand in Indonesia has been about 12 - 13% over the past few years.

Cullen said: “Cost of generation and meeting growing electricity demand is key in Indonesia. While coal will always be cheaper, it would be interesting to see in the longer term whether lower gas prices could encourage greater role of gas in the energy mix, and eventually accelerate the country’s energy transition.”

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标签:印尼 液化天然气

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