液化天然气价格对美国LNG行业影响巨大

据6月28日今日油价报道，上周，Tellurian表示，该公司将于明年对Driftwood液化天然气项目做出最终投资决定。一方面，这是好消息：在与印度Petronet的长期供应协议失败后，Tellurian停止了对该项目的更新。另一方面，这一声明使其成为一系列液化天然气公司中最新一家将最终投资决定推迟一年的公司，这对该行业来说并不是个好兆头。而从该公司首席执行官解释中可以得出，该公司需要天然气价格的提升，特别是亚洲现货市场价格超过每百万英热5美元，但目前，液化天然气的价格约为每百万英热2美元。要想在一年之内攀升超过100%的可能性有待商榷。

根据壳牌公司的说法，由于今年新增供应量缓慢，明年LNG价格将会上涨。但这一预测是在该公司今年2月发布的《2020年液化天然气展望》(Outlook 2020)中做出的。自那以后，壳牌退出了查尔斯湖液化天然气项目，据报道，该公司正在考虑出售其澳大利亚液化天然气业务的部分股权。尽管后者可能是危机前撤资计划的一部分，但在退出查尔斯湖项目之前，该公司对液化天然气市场持乐观态度。

该公司在决定退出查尔斯湖项目时，提到了市场状况。印度Petronet在终止与Tellurian的初步长期协议时，也考虑到了同样的市场环境。目前，现货市场上的液化天然气比长期供应合同中的价格便宜得多。正是这种价格差异改变了项目计划表，推迟了FID的日期。有趣的是，正是美国液化天然气生产商促成了这一局面，尽管他们并非自愿。

液化天然气也未能幸免于疫情带来的危机影响。全国封锁开始后，对所谓的过渡性燃料的需求也大幅下降。在供过于求的情况下，买家的压力只会越来越大，美国生产商不得不在现货市场倾销他们的产品。难怪自4月以来持续下滑的液化天然气现货价格，在5月底触及每百万英热1.85美元的历史低点。

本月早些时候，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)发布了一份关于天然气和液化天然气的新报告，报告中称，由于疫情冲击了本已疲软的市场，预计2020年天然气行业将遭遇有史以来最大的需求冲击。这一冲击将导致全球天然气需求下降4%。IEA表示，需求有望在明年开始恢复，但其补充称，这一冲击仍将导致到2025年约有750亿立方米的天然气需求减少。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. LNG Industry Needs Prices To Double

Last week, Tellurian said it would make the final investment decision on the Driftwood LNG project next year. On the one hand, the news is good: Tellurian had stopped making updates on the project after its long-term supply deal with India’s Petronet fell through. On the other hand, the announcement makes it the latest in a string of LNG companies pushing their FIDs back by a year, and this does not bode well for the industry. It is enough to look at the reason why Tellurian postponed its final investment decision, as explained by the chief executive: the company needs gas prices--specifically, Asian spot market prices--to be over $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Right now, LNG trades at about $2 per mmBtu. Can it climb more than 100 percent within a year?

According to Shell, prices will rise by next year because new supply will be slow in coming this year. But that forecast was made in the supermajor’s LNG Outlook 2020, which was released in February. Since then, Shell has pulled out of the Lake Charles LNG project and is reportedly mulling over the sale of a stake in its Australian LNG business. While the latter is likely part of a divestment program running from before the crisis, the exit from the Lake Charles project is interesting, especially in light of the company’s continued optimism about the LNG market.

The company cited market conditions in its decision to pull out from Lake Charles LNG. India’s Petronet must have had the same market conditions in mind when it let its preliminary long-term agreement with Tellurian expire. Right now, LNG is much cheaper on the spot market than in long-term supply contracts. It is this price disparity that is changing timelines and pushing back FID dates. And ironically enough, it is U.S. LNG producers that contributed to this situation, though not willingly.

LNG has not been spared by the coronavirus. Demand for the so-called bridge fuel also slumped when the national lockdowns began. Pressed for buyers in a situation of oversupply that was only going to get worse, U.S. producers had to dump their product on the spot market. No wonder then that LNG spot prices, which have been on a persistent slide since April, reached an all-time low of $1.85 per million British thermal units at the end of May.

The International Energy Agency earlier this month published a new report on gas and LNG in which it said that “natural gas is expected to experience its largest demand shock on record in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic hits an already weakened market.”

This shock will cause a 4-percent drop in global gas demand. The IEA said the lost demand would start returning next year, but it added that the shock will still lead to lost demand of some 75 billion cu m of natural gas in the period to 2025.