EIA:Henry Hub期货价格跌至历史低点

EIA日前表示，Henry Hub天然气日均现货价格已跌至1998年12月以来的最低水平。

美国能源信息管理局引用天然气情报数据指出，2020年6月16日，Henry Hub价格达到1.38美元/百万英热单位(MMBtu)，这是自1998年12月以来，不考虑通货膨胀和名义美元的Henry Hub期货跌至最低价格。

在2020年开始相对较低的价格之后，今年夏天到目前为止，Henry Hub的价格持续走低，原因是天然气储存水平较高，以及天然气需求的下降，特别是液化天然气(LNG)原料气出口和工业部门的需求。

在经历了一个暖冬之后，4月30日，供暖季结束时的天然气库存比5年平均水平高出21%(3950亿立方英尺)，比去年季末的水平高出50%(7720亿立方英尺)。自那以后，由于需求下降，天然气的净注入量增加，这些差异继续很大。

截至6月12日，天然气储备水平比5年平均水平高出17%(419亿立方英尺)，比去年高出33%(722亿立方英尺)。

较高的储存量表明天然气产量相对于消费者需求较高。6月份的短期能源展望(STEO)预测，到2020年10月底，天然气储量将达到创纪录的4.1万亿立方英尺。

近几周，输往液化天然气出口终端的原料气数量较低，也对天然气价格构成下行压力。今年6月到目前为止，输往液化天然气终端的天然气平均日产量为40亿立方英尺(Bcf/d)，比去年同期减少了14亿立方英尺，比3月底预计的创纪录的日产量减少了50多亿立方英尺。

此外，为减缓2019年新冠病毒(COVID-19)蔓延而实施的政策导致商业和制造业活动减少，也导致工业消费者对天然气的需求减弱。

据标普全球普氏能源咨询公司(S&P Global Platts)估计，2020年6月的工业天然气平均消费量比2019年6月下降了约21亿立方英尺/天，降幅达9.6%。

今年夏天到目前为止，天然气价格较低，导致发电厂对天然气的消耗增加，因为与煤炭等其他燃料相比，天然气在发电方面更具竞争力。与去年相比，6月份日均耗电量增长了约6%。尽管今年6月到目前为止电力需求增长基本持平，但仍出现了上述增长。

天然气价格处于历史低位的另一个影响是天然气产量下降。美国能源信息管理局指出，根据IHS Markit的数据，6月份的干产总量约为900亿立方英尺/天，比2020年3月减少了近37亿立方英尺/天。

最近需求的下降超过了产量的下降，给Henry Hub的价格带来了下行压力。然而，由于天然气价格变化和生产水平调整之间存在时滞，预计天然气产量将进一步下降。

6月STEO预测干产量将继续稳步下降，到2021年5月达到842亿立方英尺/天的低点。未来几个月，天然气产量的下降将给Henry Hub价格带来上行压力。6月份的STEO预计天然气价格将在2020年底走高，并预测Henry Hub在12月份的平均价格将达到2.95美元/百万英热。

赵斌 编译自 世界天然气

原文如下：

EIA: Henry Hub dips to record lows

The Henry Hub average daily natural gas spot price has hit its lowest level since December 1998.

Citing Natural Gas Intelligence data, U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that the Henry Hub reached $1.38 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 16, 2020, the lowest daily Henry Hub price without adjusting for inflation and in nominal dollars since December 1998.

After starting 2020 relatively low, the price at Henry Hub so far this summer has continued to trend low because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural gas demand, specifically in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas and in the industrial sector.

Following a mild winter, natural gas inventories ended the heating season on April 30 at 21 per cent (395 billion cubic feet (Bcf)) higher than the five-year average and 50 per cent (772 Bcf) higher than last year’s end-of-season levels. Since then, those differences have continued to remain wide as a result of falling demand, which has increased net natural gas injections into storage.

As of June 12, natural gas storage levels were 17 per cent (419 Bcf) higher than the five-year average and 33 per cent (722 Bcf) higher than last year.

High storage levels indicate high natural gas production relative to consumer demand. The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts record natural gas in storage of nearly 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2020.

Low feedgas volumes delivered to LNG export terminals in recent weeks have also put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals have averaged 4.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in June, which is 1.4 Bcf/d lower than feedgas volumes last year and more than 5.0 Bcf/d lower than the record-high feedgas volumes estimated in late March.

In addition, less business and manufacturing activity stemming from the policies put in place to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have also led to weaker natural gas demand from industrial consumers.

Estimates from S&P Global Platts suggest that average industrial natural gas consumption in June 2020 has declined about 2.1 Bcf/d, or 9.6 per cent, compared to June 2019.

Low natural gas prices so far this summer have resulted in increased natural gas consumption by electric power plants (power burn) because natural gas has become more competitive for electricity generation compared to competing fuel sources, such as coal. The average daily power burn is up about 6 per cent in June compared to last year. This increase occurred despite essentially flat demand growth for electricity so far this June.

Another effect of historically low natural gas prices is declining natural gas production. According to data from IHS Markit, dry production totaled about 90 Bcf/d in June, down nearly 3.7 Bcf/d from March 2020, EIA notes.

The recent declines in demand have outpaced the declines in production, putting downward pressure on Henry Hub prices. However, further declines in natural gas production are expected as a result of lags between natural gas price changes and adjustments to production levels.

The June STEO forecasts dry production to continue declining steadily, reaching a low of 84.2 Bcf/d in May 2021. Declines in natural gas production will put upward pressure on the Henry Hub price in the coming months. The June STEO expects higher natural gas prices by the end of 2020, forecasting Henry Hub to average $2.95/MMBtu in December.