雷斯塔能源：油价或将在40-50美元波动

据6月22日Rigzone报道，油价目前已进入中期复苏阶段。

Rystad能源公司石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，油价将在每桶40美元上下波动一段时间，且不太可能出现巨大波动。

Tonhaugen强调，在目前阶段，进一步上涨至每桶45-50美元的水平是不太合理的，因为需求方面仍存在担忧。他在一份声明中表示:“当前的危机并没有消失，全球主要市场的感染病例在增加，人们有理由担心，世界将在很长一段时间内面临挑战。如果感染和住院人数继续上升，第二波浪潮成为现实，随着需求下降，市场将再次低迷。虽然不会像今年上半年那么严重。”

Rystad强调，伊拉克必须提出其计划，以使产量达到欧佩克+的规定目标。Tonhaugen警告称，利雅得和莫斯科的耐心正在减弱，并表示未来几天将关注市场对伊拉克计划的反应。

他补充道：“如果欧佩克+认为其联盟成员不能够信任，那么维持协议就不是理所当然的了。在其他方面(需求)都稳定的情况下，如果摆在明面上的产量计划是值得信赖的，且相关承诺得到了遵守，我们可以预期油价在下次欧佩克+会议前将在每桶40-45美元之间波动。"

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Prices Reach Interim Recovery

Oil prices have now reached an interim stage of recovery.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen, who outlined that prices will fluctuate around the $40 mark “for a while” and that “huge deviations” would not be likely.

Further gains to levels of $45-50 would not be justified at this stage as there are still valid concerns on the demand side, Tonhaugen highlighted.

“The pandemic has not disappeared, it’s tiring for many to refer to Covid-19 again and again, but the reality demands it,” Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday.

“Infections are rising in key markets around the world and there are valid concerns that the world is in for a prolonged period of dealing with its consequences,” he added.

“If infections and hospitalizations rise even more and a second wave becomes a reality, the market will get depressed again with demand declining. Not as much as in the first half of the year though, as the extent of lockdowns that we have experienced was too painful to bare for many countries,” Tonhaugen continued.

The Rystad representative also highlighted that today is the day that Iraq must present its plan to get production down in line with its OPEC+ targets. Tonhaugen warned that patience by Riyadh and Moscow is running thin and said the market will be watching the reactions to Iraq’s plans in the coming days.

“If OPEC+ sees that it cannot trust the members of the alliance, it’s not for granted that the deal will be maintained. What if it gets scrapped?” Tonhaugen said.

“With everything else stable (demand), if compliance plans that are put on the table are trustworthy and commitments are kept, we can expect prices to move between $40 and $45 maximum before the next OPEC+ meeting, which will be another benchmark event,” Tonhaugen added.