雷斯塔能源:油田服务需求将下降25%

据6月20日Offshore Energy报道，Rystad周四表示，今年油田服务领域（OFS）的支出预计为4810亿美元，并将在2021年迈出复苏的第一步，预计复苏速度仅为2%左右。

到2022年和2023年，油气勘探与开发公司在OFS上的支出将分别达到5520亿美元和6200亿美元，油气资源的恢复将进一步加快。Rystad表示，尽管有所提振，但规模不会回到2019年疫情爆发前的水平，即6390亿美元。

然而，从2021年开始，OFS业务的复苏并不会在所有细分市场都可以见到。据该公司称，油井服务和压力泵市场将首先出现提振，而其他市场会在进一步低迷后才能复苏。

Rystad Energy能源研究主管Audun Martinsen表示:“尽管油价在复苏，但供应链的各个部门的收入要实现持续增长还需要很多时间。在经济好转的情况下，运营商更倾向于灵活的预算项目，如增加产量、投资高回报率高、回报时间短等。因此，预计优质服务业务将率先复苏，而长周期业务的复苏则要晚得多。”

如果将OFS划分为6个部分——维护和运营、油井服务和商品、钻井承包商、水下生产系统、EPCI和地震勘测——2021年只有前3个领域能够实现增长。Rystad称，后三个领域必须准备好迎接又一年的收入下降，才能期待业绩改善。

从绝对数字上看，维护和运营部门在2019年的2020亿美元下降到今年的1670亿美元之后，未来三年有望实现连续的年度增长。这部分支出预计将在2021年恢复到1750亿美元，2022年恢复到1930亿美元，2023年恢复到2050亿美元。

油井服务和大宗商品板块也将出现类似的复苏，但在此之前，其规模已从去年的2310亿美元降至2020年的1520亿美元。这是各细分市场绝对数字降幅最大的一次。在这方面的支出预计将在2021年增加到1630亿美元，2022年增加到1890亿美元，2023年增加到2100亿美元。

同样的模式也适用于钻井承包商，从去年的620亿美元降至2020年的460亿美元。据Rystad称，2021年，这一数字将增长到470亿美元，2022年增长到540亿美元，2023年增长到570亿美元。

另一方面，水下生产系统将在2022年开始反弹。也就是说，2020年从2019年的250亿美元降至240亿美元，还将在2021年进一步降至220亿美元。第一次反弹将在2022年达到240亿美元，然后在2023年达到290亿美元。

同样，EPCI也将从去年的1050亿美元降至2020年的810亿美元。到2021年，这一数字将进一步下滑至740亿美元。经过两年的不景气，到2022年，这个数字将回升到810亿美元，到2023年将增长到1060亿美元。

最后，地震预测公司将从2019年的150亿美元降至2020年的120亿美元。2021年，这一数字将继续下降至100亿美元，到2022年将反弹至110亿美元。一年后，将进一步增长到130亿美元。

Martinsen补充道“充其量，只有某些地区和服务部门的收入会持续增长。整个供应链要想恢复，我们可能需要等到2023年以后，我们预计到那时服务需求将回到2019年的水平。”

Rystad还表示，供应商将面临持续的挑战。然而，尽管石油和天然气市场预计需要数年时间才能恢复，但即将到来的能源转型可能是一个潜在的希望之路，因为它可能为OFS参与者打开新的市场，并发挥他们的能力实现增长。

值得提醒的是，Rystad早些时候曾表示，疫情将推动石油需求峰值加速到来，全球可采石油将减少约2820亿桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 Offshore Energy

原文如下：

Rystad: Oilfield services demand to drop by 25 per cent due to Covid-19 downturn

Rystad said on Thursday that OFS spending was expected at $481 billion this year and take the first step towards recovery in 2021 when it is forecast to tick up by just about 2 per cent.

The recovery will accelerate further in 2022 and 2023, with OFS spending by E&Ps reaching some $552 and $620 billion, respectively. Despite the boost, Rystad stated that purchases would not return to the pre-Covid-19 levels of $639 billion achieved in 2019.

However, the comeback will not be visible across all OFS segments from 2021. According to the company, well services and the pressure pumping market will be the first to see a boost, while other markets will need to get further depressed before recovering.

Rystad Energy’s head of energy research Audun Martinsen said: “Despite the recovery in oil prices, it will take many quarters before all segments of the supply chain see their revenues deliver consistent growth.

“In case of an upturn, operators would prefer flexible budget items with production increments and high-return investments with short pay-back times. Therefore, we expect well service segments to be the first to recover, while long-lead segments will pick up much later“.

If we divide OFS into six segments – maintenance and operations, well services and commodities, drilling contractors, subsea, EPCI, and seismic – only the first three will manage to rise in 2021.

Rystad claims that the latter three will have to brace for another year of falling revenues before they can expect improvements.

In absolute numbers, the maintenance and operations segment is poised for consecutive yearly rises in the next three years after slumping to $167 billion this year from $202 billion in 2019.

Spending in this segment is expected to recover to $175 billion in 2021, $193 billion in 2022, and $205 billion in 2023.

The well services and commodities segment is set for a similar recovery, but only after slumping to $152 billion in 2020 from $231 billion last year. This is the biggest decline among segments in absolute numbers. Spending in this segment is expected to rise to $163 billion in 2021, $189 billion in 2022, and $210 billion in 2023.

The same pattern applies to drilling contractors, with the segment fell to $46 billion in 2020 from $62 billion last year. According to Rystad, it will rise to $47 billion in 2021, $54 billion in 2022, and $57 billion in 2023.

The subsea segment, on the other hand, will begin its rebound in 2022. Namely, it fell from $25 billion in 2019 to $24 billion in 2020 and will decline further to $22 billion in 2021. The first rebound will be to $24 billion in 2022 and then to $29 billion in 2023.

Similarly, EPCI is set to fall to $81 billion in 2020 from $105 billion last year. It will slide further to $74 billion in 2021. After two bad years, it will rise back to $81 billion in 2022 and grow to $106 billion in 2023.

Lastly, seismic is poised to decline to $12 billion in 2020 from $15 billion in 2019. It will keep dropping to $10 billion in 2021, before rebounding to $11 billion in 2022. It will further grom to $13 billion a year later.

“At best there will only be certain regions and service segments that will see their revenues grow consistently. For the whole supply chain to recover, we will likely need to wait until after 2023, when we expect service purchases to return to their 2019 levels“, adds Martinsen.

Rystad added that suppliers will face a continued challenge turning their bottom lines back into the black and deal with their debt.

However, while the oil and gas market is expected to take years to recover, the impending energy transition could be a potential avenue of hope as it could open up new markets for OFS players to leverage their capabilities and grow.

It is worth reminding that Rystad said earlier this week that the Covid-19 downturn will expedite peak oil demand and reduce the world’s recoverable oil by around 282 billion barrels.