沙特石油市场份额将创上世纪80年代以来最高水平

据路透社6月12日消息，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在一份报告中称，沙特阿拉伯在石油市场的份额在2011-2020这十年中将升至1980年代以来最高水平，因其他地区的生产投资在疫情来袭后枯竭。

据这家华尔街银行表示，在需求出现前所未有的暴跌后，油价今年已暴跌逾40%，促使石油和天然气公司宣布削减开支，到2020年将总计削减6,250亿美元。

摩根大通分析师Christyan Malek对路透社表示，投资紧缩将导致产量下降，这将在两年内推动基准布伦特原油价格升至每桶60美元。

由于全球疫情使全球经济停滞不前，布伦特原油价格在4月份一度跌至每桶16美元，目前交易价格接近每桶40美元。

摩根大通预计，2020年全球石油日均需求将为9,100万桶，较此前预估减少900万桶，而到2021年11月，石油消费才会恢复到疫情前的1亿桶/天水平。

但摩根大通预计，消费模式的改变将导致本十年的日需求量比此前预测永久减少300万桶。

与此同时，由于缺乏对新产出的投资以及一些油田的关闭，石油供应将减少500万桶/天。该银行表示，沙特阿拉伯的生产成本最低，产能最大，最适合填补这一空缺。

Malek称，"随着非欧佩克产油国和美国的产量减少，沙特阿拉伯将在争夺市场份额的战斗中胜出。"

该银行预测，美国页岩油产量在2010年代大幅增长，但在这十年里几乎不会增长，到2030年仅会从今年的1090万桶/天攀升至1,100万桶/天。

在油价下滑之前，页岩油产量预计将在2020年达到1700万桶/天。

因此，摩根大通预计，一旦油价升至每桶60美元，欧佩克成员国将填补供应缺口。60美元是欧佩克成员国平衡预算所需的平均价格。

尽管欧佩克的市场份额从2016年占总石油供应的39%的峰值下降到2020-21年的33%，但摩根大通预计，到2025年，该组织将重新获得约40%的市场份额。

Malek称，沙特阿拉伯的市场份额将从2020年的11.6%增至15%，这是自上世纪80年代以来的最高水平。

裘寅 编译自 路透社

原文如下：

Saudi oil market share set to hit highest since 1980s: J.P. Morgan

Saudi Arabia’s share of the oil market is set to rise this decade to its highest since the 1980s as investment in production elsewhere dries up in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, J.P. Morgan said in a report.

Oil prices have plunged more than 40% this year after an unprecedented collapse in demand, prompting oil and gas companies to announce spending cuts that will total $625 billion by the end of the decade, according to the Wall Street bank.

The investment crunch will lead to a loss of output that is set to push benchmark Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel within two years, J.P. Morgan analyst Christyan Malek told Reuters.

Brent LCOc1 fell as low as $16 a barrel in April as the pandemic forced economies around the world to lock down and it is currently trading near $40 a barrel. [O/R]

The U.S. bank expects global oil demand to average 91 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, 9 million lower than earlier estimates, with consumption only recovering to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd in November 2021.

But changes in consumption patterns will lead to a permanent demand loss of 3 million bpd this decade compared with previous forecasts, J.P. Morgan forecasts.

Oil supply, meanwhile, is set to fall by 5 million bpd due to a lack of investment in new output and the closure of some fields. With the lowest production costs and biggest capacity, Saudi Arabia is best placed to take up the slack, the bank said.

“Saudi Arabia will come out on top in the fight for market share as non-OPEC and U.S. production fades,” Malek said.

U.S. shale oil production, which grew sharply throughout the 2010s, will barely rise this decade, climbing only to 11 million bpd by 2030 from 10.9 million this year, the bank forecast.

Before the slide in oil prices, shale output was expected to reach 17 million bpd by the end of this decade.

As a result, J.P. Morgan expects members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) to fill the supply gap, once oil prices reach $60 a barrel, which is the price OPEC countries need on average to balance their budgets.

While OPEC’s market share fell from a peak of 39% of total oil supply in 2016 to 33% in 2020-21, the bank expects the group to regain a market share of about 40% by 2025.

Saudi Arabia’s market share is set to grow from 11.6% in 2020 to 15% over the period, a level not seen since the 1980s, Malek said.