2020年全球天然气需求将下降2％

据5月20日Oil Monster消息：雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）估计，今年全球天然气需求将下降近2%，原因是受疫情影响，商业和工业对天然气的需求下降。据估算，全球天然气需求总量将从去年的3951亿立方米降至近3878亿立方米。低于此前预测的4038亿立方米， Rystad Energy天然气和电力市场主管卡洛斯·托雷斯-迪亚兹表示：“ 2020年将是自2009年以来消费没有增长的第一年。对于一个习惯于年增长率超过3%的行业来说，这将是一个沉重的打击。”

各国对天然气需求的影响因封锁措施的严重性以及电力结构和工业活动等因素而异。有能力从煤炭转换为天然气的国家，需求下降的影响较小。

意大利是受影响最大的国家之一，在封锁期间，电力和工业部门的天然气需求平均损失高达23％。

而美国的天然气需求依然旺盛，主要是因为电力行业的需求不断增长，弥补了其它行业需求的下降。过去两周，来自电力部门的天然气需求平均每天7.08亿立方米，与去年的水平基本持平。但在目前的封锁期间，也有需求比去年水平高出15%以上的时期。主要原因是天然气价格仍然很低，而煤炭价格也有所下降，天然气在发电方面仍然更有竞争力。因此，美国电力需求的下降，将煤炭而非天然气挤出了发电行业。

澳大利亚，德国和韩国等许多其他国家也拥有较大的煤制气转换能力，这些国家的需求响应可能与美国类似。

关于对天然气需求的实际影响仍然存在很多不确定性。经济增长的放缓以及刺激计划对重新激活商业和工业活动的影响，都可能使汽油需求规模缩小。

这种不确定性代表了今年剩余时间天然气需求的下行风险。然而，Rystad Energy预测，基于今年整个勘探开发行业的投资活动较低，2020年天然气产量将在4000亿立方米左右。

冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Global Demand for Natural Gas Will Drop 2% in 2020

Rystad Energy estimates global natural gas demand to fall by almost 2% this year as a result of the lower activity as commercial and industrial demand for natural gas is declining as most countries around the world impose lockdowns to limit the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. In absolute terms, Rystad Energy expects global gas demand to total close to 3,878 billion cubic meters in 2020, down from 3,951 Bcm last year. In Rystad Energy’s pre-Covid-19 estimates, this year’s natural gas demand was expected to grow to 4,038 Bcm. Rystad Energy’s Head of Gas and Power Markets Carlos Torres-Diaz said “2020 will be the first year since 2009 where there will be no growth in consumption. This will be a hard blow for an industry accustomed to yearly growth rates of more than 3%.”

The impact on gas demand has varied substantially from country to country depending on the severity of lockdown measures and factors such as the power mix and industrial activity. Countries with capacity to switch from coal to gas will see less effect from the demand drop.

Italy is one of the countries that have been the most affected by Covid-19, and as a result the government decided to impose a strict lockdown starting in the beginning of March. The average loss in gas demand from the power and industrial sectors has been a staggering 23% over the duration of the lockdown. However, Italy has little coal-power generation capacity, meaning that any reduction in power demand will represent a similar drop in gas-for-power demand as a it is difficult to achieve a reduction in generation from renewable sources.

Other European countries have seen similar effects, with the International Energy Agency estimating a total loss in weather-adjusted gas demand of 25% in France and 19% in the UK.

On the other hand, demand in the US continues to thrive, mostly as a result of increasing demand from the power sector which has compensated for the drop in other sectors. Gas demand from the power sector has averaged 25 billion cubic feet per day (708 million cubic meters per day) over the last two weeks, which is practically in line with last year’s level. But there have been periods during the current lockdown where demand has been more than 15% above last year’s level. The main reason for this is that gas prices remain very low, and while coal prices have also dropped, gas is still more competitive in power generation. The drop in US power demand has therefore pushed coal out of the generation stack rather than gas.

There are many other countries that also have a large coal-to-gas switching capacity, such as Australia, Germany and South Korea, which could see similar demand responses to the one seen in the US.

A lot of uncertainty remains about the actual impact on gas demand. The possibility of new lockdowns, the slowdown in economic growth and the effect of stimulus packages on reactivating commercial and industrial activity could all tip the gas-demand scale.

This uncertainty represents a downside risk for gas demand for the rest of the year. However, Rystad Energy has forecasted natural gas production to be around 4,000 Bcm in 2020 based on the lower investment activity expected across the E&P industry during this year.