IEA：石油市场复苏面临两大不确定性

据今日油价5月15日报道，国际能源署IEA表示，5月开始，石油市场需求开始回暖，但市场供需平衡在脆弱的复苏道路上，仍面临两大不确定因素。

不确定因素之一是，欧佩克+成员国能否实现并保持减产。IEA表示，尽管欧佩克中东重量级国家沙特、阿联酋和科威特承诺将进一步削减石油产量，但整个欧佩克+集团将如何继续遵守减产，这一点非常不确定。

另一个不确定因素是，疫情传播会不会再次加重。在经济开始重新开放、封锁得到缓解之后，包括意大利和英国等欧洲一些受灾最严重的国家在内，如果疫情再次开始上升，对石油市场的再平衡和油价复苏来说，一个更大的不确定性将再次出现。

这些不确定性如果出现，可能会危及IEA对全球石油市场的乐观看法。国际能源机构在5月份的报告中预计，2020年全球石油需求将下降860万桶/日，这是今年的一个重大需求损失，但略低于该机构在4月份报告中预测的930万桶/日需求破坏。

二季度，IEA预计，需求将下降1990万桶/日。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

IEA: Oil Market Recovery Faces Two Major Uncertainties

Even after the ‘Black April’ ended and demand started to crawl up, the oil market and supply-demand balances continue to face two major uncertainties on its fragile road to recovery—a possible second wave of COVID-19 infections and potentially underwhelming OPEC+ compliance with the cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

In its Oil Market Report for May, the IEA noted that despite pledges both for deeper cuts and over-compliance from OPEC’s Middle East heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, it is highly uncertain how compliant the whole OPEC+ group would remain with the production reductions. One of the biggest questions that the oil market faces is whether the OPEC+ participants could achieve and then keep the cuts, the IEA said.

An even bigger headache for the oil market rebalancing and oil price recovery is the major uncertainty if coronavirus infections will start rising again in a second wave, after economies have started to re-open and lockdowns are being eased, including in some of the worst hit countries in Europe such as Italy and the United Kingdom.

“These are big questions – and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have major consequences for the oil market,” the Paris-based agency said.

These uncertainties, if realized, could put at risk the IEA’s slightly more optimistic view on the global oil market this month compared to last month. In the May report, the IEA expects global oil demand to drop by 8.6 million bpd in 2020—a major demand loss this year, but slightly less than the 9.3-million-bpd demand destruction the agency had predicted in its report in April.

For Q2 2020 alone, the IEA expects demand to plunge by 19.9 million bpd compared to last year’s consumption levels.