需求锐减致使运营商非自愿停产大幅增加

据4月20日OGJ报道， 据雷斯塔能源公司估计， 4月份全球范围内至少有190万桶/日的石油产量已经下线，因为在连续3个月的疫情影响的需求破坏和油价下跌之后，运营商被迫关闭大量的油井。今年5月，这个数字可能会增长到至少200万桶/天。

根据雷斯塔能源公司的数据，加拿大油砂仍然是主要的受害者，4月份关闭量为114万桶/天，其次是伊拉克，约为30万桶/天，委内瑞拉为27.5万桶/天。

“在我们的追踪中发现，上游油田停产主要是由于低油价、疫情和储油/开采量的限制造成的非自愿停产。”

总的来说，雷斯塔能源公司估计，到2020年第二季度，全球供应将因疫情、低油价和存储限制降至188万桶/天。由于Fort Hills、Mildred Lake / Aurora和Kearl等油砂项目的停产，加拿大在第二季度的预计损失约为96万桶/天，居于首位。

雷斯塔高级石油市场分析师Teodora Cowie说：“随着库存的增加，各国被迫大规模停产，以抵消2020年第二季度理论上2100万桶/天的供应过剩。对于运营商而言，停产是一个非常痛苦的决定——通常在经济上的支持下，会在一段时间内亏本运行油井，而不是完全关闭项目。但是由于基础设施的限制，这已不再是许多内陆石油生产商的选择了。”

还有消息称页岩气区块可能会被关闭。目前，有关美国停产的公开信息很少，但根据北达科他州石油监管机构的声明，雷斯塔估计，3月份至少有17.5万桶/日的产量被关闭，主要是在巴肯（Bakken）。根据美国大陆资源公司（Continental Resources）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）的最新新闻发布，预计5月份，在多个页岩气区块的关闭量将达到17.7万桶/天。

然而，据雷斯塔称，即使在无法支付现金成本的情况下，大多数运营商也不愿关闭大量的油井，除非他们被迫关闭(即原油实际上没有买家)。尽管美国油气行业的决策过程肯定是由经济原理驱动的，但这种原理并不总是适用于即时的现金流。

“未来几个季度的总体需求和油价不确定性迫使运营商坚持撤资，这样做是因为如果他们在同行面前折价，就意味着失去了区域市场份额。虽然低产井显然是要关闭的目标，但我们并不希望低产井供应迅速停止，是因为这些井中的大多数都没有与管道相连，而且在任何给定的时间点，只有一小部分低产井必须以当前的实际价格出售原油。”

“要想从低产井供应中获得实质性回报，就需要长期价格疲软。然而，一些专注于LTO的大型运营商已开始关闭其一些产量/经济效益最差的旧油井，迄今为止，这些供应对宏观形势的总体贡献可以忽略不计。”

舒晓玲 摘译自 OGJ

原文如下：

Global shut-ins surge

Globally, at least 1.9 million b/d of oil production have been booted offline in April, as operators are being forced to shut-in considerable production volumes following 3 consecutive months of COVID-19 demand destruction and falling oil prices, according to Rystad Energy estimates. In May, this will likely grow to at least 2 million b/d.

Canada oil sands continue to be the prime victim with 1.14 million b/d of shut-ins in April, followed by Iraq with around 300,000 b/d, and Venezuela with 275,000 b/d, according to Rystad Energy data.

“The upstream shut-ins in our tracker primarily include involuntary shut-ins at fields which halted production due to low oil prices, the COVID-19 outbreak, or storage/offtake constraints.”

In total, Rystad Energy estimates 2020 second quarter global outages from COVID-19, low prices, and storage constraints at 1.88 million b/d. With oil sands projects like Fort Hills, Mildred Lake/Aurora, and Kearl shuttering production, Canada leads the tally with an expected loss of about 960,000 b/d over the quarter.

“As storage fills up, countries are being forced to shut-in production on a large scale to counteract a theoretical oversupply of 21 million b/d in 2020 second quarter. Shutting-in production is a very painful decision for an operator to make – often the economics support running a well at a loss for a certain period of time rather than shutting down the project completely. But with infrastructure constraints, this is no longer an option for many landlocked producers,” said Rystad Energy Senior Oil Market Analyst Teodora Cowie.

There is also news of possible shut-ins in the shale patch. Public information on US shut-ins is currently scarce, but Rystad Energy estimates at least 175,000 b/d in production was shuttered in March, mainly in the Bakken, based on statements from the North Dakota oil regulator. For May, 177,000 b/d of shut-ins is expected across multiple shale plays, based on the latest press releases from Continental Resources and ConocoPhillips.

However, most operators are reluctant to shut-in significant volumes unless they are forced to do so (i.e. there are literally no buyers for the crude) even when they are unable to cover their cash costs, according to Rystad Energy. While the decision-making process in the US oil and gas industry is surely driven by economic rationale, this rationale doesn’t always apply to immediate cash flows.

“Overall demand and oil price uncertainty for the next several quarters are forcing operators to hold out on pulling the switch, as doing so means losing their regional market share if they fold before their peers. While stripper wells are an obvious target to turn off, we don’t anticipate a quick deactivation of stripper well supply, simply because a majority of those wells are not connected to pipelines and at any given point of time only a small portion of stripper wells has to sell crude at the current physical prices.”

“Prolonged price weakness is required to see a material response from the stripper well supply. Yet some large LTO-focused operators started shutting in some of their least productive/economic legacy wells, but the total contribution of this supply to the macro picture is so far negligible.”