美国天然气期货价格下跌4%

据路透社4月15日报道，因市场更加关注未来需求削减的预期，而非未来两周降温和供暖增加的短期预测，美国天然气期货价格周二下跌逾4%。

纽约商品交易所5月份交割的近月天然气期货价格下跌7.4美分，至每百万英热1.65美元，跌幅为4.3%，创下一周来的最低收盘点位。这是自2月以来首次出现连续4天的下跌。在此期间，该合约已缩水约11%。

即使在全球经济增长放缓和能源需求下滑之前，天然气价格就已接近多年来的最低水平，因为创纪录的产量和数月的暖冬天气使公用事业公司得以将更多燃料储存起来，使得供应短缺和价格飙升不大可能出现。在4月的第一个星期，近月天然气期货价格降至1995年8月以来的最低点。

不过，展望未来，2020年剩余时间和2021年交割的天然气期货价格出现大幅上涨，因为市场预计，随着经济复苏，未来几个月的需求将大幅上升。

与此同时，6月期货相对于5月NGK20-M20的溢价升至2008年合约开始交易以来的最高水平，而2021年的合约比2022年超出24天，比2025年的合约超出14天。

美国能源信息署(EIA)预计，随着办公场所关闭和工厂产能降低，2020年美国天然气日消耗量将从2019年创纪录的849.7亿立方英尺降至837.9亿立方英尺，2021年降至812.4亿立方英尺。这将是自2017年以来需求首次出现年度下降，也是自2006年以来需求首次连续两年下降。

但随着短期内天气转冷，数据提供商Refinitiv预计，包括出口在内，美国48个州的天然气需求本周将达到976亿立方英尺/天，下周将达到950亿立方英尺/天。这高于Refinitiv周一预测的973亿立方英尺/天和943亿立方英尺/天。

与此同时，据Refinitiv的数据显示，周一流入美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气量从周日的78亿立方英尺/天增至87亿立方英尺/天，创历史新高。而上周为80亿立方英尺/天，1月31日为9亿立方英尺/天。

根据Refinitiv的数据，美国对墨西哥管道出口量从周日的53亿立方英尺/天跌至周一的52亿立方英尺/天，为10周来的低点。相比之下，上周为54亿立方英尺/天，而在10月17日曾达创纪录的58亿立方英尺/天。

邹勤 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures fall 4% on coronavirus demand destruction worries

U.S. natural gas futures fell over 4% on Tuesday as the market focused more on projections that steps to slow the coronavirus spread will cut future demand rather than short-term forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating use over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents,or 4.3%, to settle at $1.650 per million British thermal units, their lowest close in over a week. That puts the front-month down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since February. During that time, the contract has lost about 11%.

Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely. During the first week of April, the front-month settled at its lowest since August 1995.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading much higher than the front month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy recovers once governments loosen travel and work restrictions after slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

Along those lines, the premium of futures for June over May NGK20-M20 rose to its highest since 2008 when the contracts started trading, while calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 24 days and over 2025 for 14 days.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the coronavirus would cut U.S. gas consumption to 83.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019 as offices close and factories run at lower capacities. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand will have fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.

But with cooler weather coming in the short-term, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would reach 97.6 bcfd this week and 95.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 97.3 bcfd this week and 94.3 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants, meanwhile, rose to 8.7 bcfd on Monday from 7.8 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico fell to a 10-week low of 5.2 bcfd on Monday from 5.3 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time high of 5.8 bcfd on Oct. 17.