可再生能源迎来发展机遇

据路透社4月7日报道，当前形势可能改变各类能源的市场动态，将有利于风能、太阳能和水电等可再生能源发展。

以石油和天然气行业为例。尽管媒体和分析师倾向于关注当前的严重的供应过剩问题，但在全球经济大部分进入某种形式的“冬眠”所带来的需求冲击下，长期经济形势也发生了变化。

布伦特原油期货价格自1月份高点以来暴跌53%，周二至每桶34美元左右，亚洲液化天然气（LNG）现货价格从去年10月的冬季前峰值暴跌66%，至上周创纪录的每百万英国热2.8美元，令油气行业陷入困境。

虽然随着需求恢复增长，原油和液化天然气价格可能会在未来数月乃至数年内回升，但也有可能继续下降。以往价格暴跌的经验表明，要实现全面复苏需要几年时间，主要原因是需求必须复苏，或供应必须下调，以实现市场平衡。

原油和液化天然气相关的此前在计划中的投资，大部分将被推迟甚至取消。咨询公司伍德麦肯兹在4月2日的一份研究报告中表示，高达2100亿美元的石油和天然气投资计划现在面临着风险。该公司上游研究团队的罗布?莫里斯(Rob Morris)表示:“几乎可以肯定的是，1100亿美元的投资将被推迟，另外1000亿美元将面临推迟或取消的风险。如果条件有利的项目取得进展，新的投资可能低至220亿美元。”

随着长期供应趋紧，石油和天然气支出的大幅缩减最终将有助于推动原油和液化天然气价格的复苏，但这也为可再生能源赢得更多市场份额提供了一个难得的机会。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Renewable energy wins over oil and gas in post-coronavirus world: Russell

The coronavirus is also likely to change the market dynamics of the various types of energy, and mostly in favour of renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower.

Take the oil and gas industry. While the media and analysts tend to focus on the immediate issue of massive oversupply amid a demand shock from much of the world’s economy going into some form of hibernation, the longer-term picture has also shifted.

The oil and gas industry has been crippled by the 53% slump in Brent crude futures since the high in January to around $34 a barrel on Tuesday, and the 66% plunge in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia from its pre-winter peak in October last year to last week’s record-low $2.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

While it’s likely that both crude and LNG prices will recover in the coming months and years as demand growth resumes, it’s also likely that the trajectory will be lower.

Previous experience of price collapses shows it takes several years for a full recovery to eventuate, mainly as demand has to recover, or supply has to adjust lower in order to achieve a balanced market.

For crude and LNG what this means is that much of the investment that had been planned before the coronavirus struck will be delayed or even scrapped.

Up to $210 billion of planned oil and gas investments are now at risk from the coronavirus, consultants Wood Mackenzie said in an April 2 research note.

“$110 billion of investment will almost certainly be deferred, with another $100 billion at risk,” said Rob Morris, from Wood Mackenzie’s upstream research team. “New committed investment could be as low as $22 billion if only the most advantaged projects progress.”

This massive pullback in oil and gas spending will ultimately help drive a recovery in crude and LNG prices as supply tightens over the longer term, but it also opens up a rare opportunity for renewables to grab more market share.