油价或将创历史最大季度跌幅

据3月31日Rigzone报道，由于中国经济复苏的迹象增强了市场需求反弹的希望，尽管油价仍将创下有史以来最糟糕的一个季度，但石油市场收复了一些损失。

尽管纽约期货交易所在中国制造业数据强于预期后上涨5.1%，实现四个交易日来首次上涨，但自去年年底以来，由于需求减少和原油供应过剩，油价仍下跌了65%。

高盛集团预计，本周石油消费量将下降2600万桶，降幅达25%。需求下降已导致从南非到加拿大的炼油厂关闭，导致市场供过于求，而沙特阿拉伯正将大量原油运往埃及，这个产油国正准备向欧洲输送大量原油。大量的供应过剩正在摧毁石油市场结构。随着世界石油储备能力的迅速耗尽，市场可能还会出现更多的疲软。

伦敦时间8点07分，纽约商品交易所5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油上涨1.02美元，至每桶21.11美元。周一，该合约下跌6.6%，至20.09美元/桶，为2002年2月以来的最低水平，本月油价下跌了53%。

伦敦洲际交易所5月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌3美分，至每桶22.73美元。该合约在3月份下跌了55%，本季度下跌了约66%。较为活跃的6月份合约价格上涨32美分，至26.74美元/桶。

全球布伦特基准原油期货出现了历史性的供应过剩严峻形势。5月合约价格较11月合约折价逾14美元，这个溢价水平使人们对石油市场的预期比2008年和2009年全球金融危机时期更为悲观。

市场上的原油现货价格已经远远低于期货基准价格。加拿大石油触及3.82美元的历史低点，而许多其他主要品级的石油交易价格低于10美元，有些甚至低至3美元。

先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources Co.)和欧芹能源公司(Parsley Energy Inc.)已要求德克萨斯州监管机构考虑减产，并在4月13日前召开紧急会议。德州铁路委员会(Texas Railroad Commission)委员瑞安?西顿(Ryan Sitton)周一表示，将在下次会议上讨论产量限制相关问题。

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Set for Worst Ever Quarter

Oil clawed back some losses as signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy bolstered hopes for a rebound in demand though prices are still headed for the worst quarter on record.

While New York futures rose for the first time in four sessions, adding 5.1% after stronger-than-anticipated China manufacturing data, oil is still down 65% since the end of December as demand vanishes and the market drowns in crude.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting consumption will drop by 26 million barrels, or 25%, this week.

The slump in demand has shut refineries from South Africa to Canada, leading to a glut in the market, while Saudi Arabia is directing huge amounts of crude toward Egypt as the producer prepares to flood Europe with its barrels. The huge oversupply is collapsing the oil market’s structure, and there may be more weakness to come as the world quickly runs out of storage capacity.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery added $1.02 to $21.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:07 a.m. London time. The contract slumped 6.6% to $20.09 on Monday, the lowest since February 2002. Prices are also down 53% this month.

Brent for May settlement, which expires Tuesday, fell 3 cents to $22.73 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 55% in March and about 66% this quarter. The more-active June contract added 32 cents to $26.74.

Futures in the global Brent benchmark are suggesting a historic glut is emerging. The May contract is trading at a discount of more than $14 a barrel to November, a more bearish super-contango than the market saw even in the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Crude prices are already far below those of futures benchmarks in the market for physical barrels. Oil from Canada touched a record low of $3.82, while many other key grades are trading below $10, with some as low as $3.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Parsley Energy Inc. have asked Texas regulators to consider a cut to output and to call an emergency meeting no later than April 13. Ryan Sitton, one of three commissioners on the Texas Railroad Commission, said on Monday that the regulating body will discuss curbing production at its next meeting.