全球勘探与生产资本支出将触13年来新低

据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月30日消息 雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）基于其最新预测基准（2020年为34美元/桶，2021年为44美元/桶）预计，2020年勘探和生产公司的全球资本支出（capex）将下降1000亿美元，较2019年下降约17%。

据雷斯塔能源估计，2019年E&P资本支出达到5460亿美元，从2015年和2016年的两年暴跌中略有回升，之前从2014年8800亿美元的历史高位大幅下跌至5100亿美元左右。

2020年的资本支出额将达到4500亿美元，这是雷斯塔能源估计的13年来的最低水平。冠状病毒大流行前的估计显示，E&P同比将保持平稳。

“随着4月份的临近，预计欧佩克+产油国将向市场注入更多的额外石油，布伦特原油价格目前接近25美元/桶，并可能进一步下跌。”

在疲软的环境下，布伦特原油在2020年的平均价格将为25美元/桶，今年全球投资可能骤降至3800亿美元左右，2021年降至近3000亿美元，分别创下14年和15年来的新低。

雷斯塔能源上游分析师奥尔加·萨文科娃表示：“由于企业近年来第二次在石油市场失地，在不严重影响E&P业绩的情况下，迅速采取行动并达到同样高的投资修正水平将面临更大的挑战。”

削减将主要通过减少美国页岩活动、推迟尚未达成最终投资决定（FID）的项目、推迟勘探活动以及在常规资产开发和生产中削减成本来实现。

“作为成本削减方面最灵活的供应行业，美国页岩气企业预计将同比减少约30%的投资。这些措施将很快反映在石油市场供应上，2020年页岩油供应增长将放缓。”

王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Rystad: Global E&P capex will reach 13-year low

Global capital expenditures (capex) of exploration and production companies are expected to fall by up to $100 billion in 2020, down about 17% from 2019, Rystad Energy predicts using its latest baseline scenario of $34/bbl in 2020 and $44/bbl in 2021.

E&P capex in 2019 reached $546 billion, according to Rystad Energy estimates, having slightly recovered from a 2-year slump in 2015 and 2016 before diving to around $510 billion from 2014’s historical high of $880 billion.

Capex volumes in 2020 will be about $450 billion, the lowest in 13 years by Rystad Energy estimates. Estimates before the coronavirus pandemic indicated E&P would remain flat year-on-year.

“As April approaches, when OPEC+ producers are expected to flood the market with even more additional oil, Brent prices are now at nearly $25/bbl and are likely to decline even further.”

In a low case scenario, where Brent averages $25/bbl in 2020, global investments may plunge to around $380 billion this year, falling to almost $300 billion in 2021, a 14-year and a 15-year low, respectively.

“As companies are now losing solid oil market ground for a second time in recent years, it will be far more challenging to act quickly and reach the same high level of investment revision without taking a heavy toll on E&P’s performance,” said Rystad Energy upstream analyst Olga Savenkova.

The cuts will be achieved primarily through reduced US shale activity, delays to projects yet to reach the final investment decision (FID), deferred exploration activity, and cost cuts within development and production for conventional assets.

“As the most flexible of the supply segments in terms of cost reduction, US shale players are expected to reduce their investments by about 30% year-on-year. These measures will be quickly reflected in the oil market supply, with shale oil supply growth set to slow down in 2020.”