美国页岩油前景不被看好

据今日油价3月30日报道，随着WTI原油价格预期会跌破20美元/桶，美国页岩油前景继续不被看好。随着需求继续萎缩，供应过剩的情况可能会进一步恶化。

3月初，一些预测人士表示，2020年石油需求可能略有下降，每日仅下降22万桶。一些预测人士则指出，到3月中旬，第二季度石油需求的降幅可能高达1000万桶/天。几天后，另一组分析师预计降幅将达1300万桶-1400万桶/天。国际能源署上周警告称，石油需求可能将减少2000万桶/天。

需求的削减可能还会继续。周一中午交易时段，油价大幅下跌。

分析师们目前正在关注全球的石油存储容量，这些容量最多可能在几周或几个月内就会被填满。布伦特原油5月至11月间的期货溢价已升至每桶13.45美元的创纪录水平，这反映出供应大量过剩。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计，从现在到2020年第二季度，美国石油日产量将减少140万桶。不过，该银行说，目前钻探速度的下降不一定会在今年第三季度前转化为产量的下降。

但由于供过于求的情况如此严重，而且按目前的价格水平，库存势必会减少，这意味着价格最终将进一步下跌。

上周，美国钻井平台数量减少了44个(40个石油钻井平台和4个天然气钻井平台)，为四年来最大降幅。值得注意的是，其中23个钻井平台位于二叠纪盆地。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Could Oil Really Fall To $0?

The outlook for U.S. shale continues to darken with WTI testing sub-$20 territory. The supply glut could grow worse as the contraction in demand continues to deepen.

In early March, a few forecasters suggested that oil demand may be slightly negative in 2020, dipping by a mere 220,000 bpd. The call was somewhat provocative at the time.

By the middle of the month, some forecasters said the demand hit could be as large as 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the second quarter. A few days later, another set of analysts put it at 13-14 mb/d. By last week, the IEA warned demand could fall by 20 mb/d.

The negative revisions could keep on coming. Oil prices dropped sharply during midday trading on Monday.

Analysts are now watching global storage capacity, which could fill up in weeks or months at most. The contango for Brent between May and November has widened to a record $13.45 per barrel, a reflection of the massive short-term glut.

Goldman Sachs sees U.S. oil production falling by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) between now and the second quarter of 2020. However, the bank said that declines from lower drilling rates today wouldn’t necessarily translate into lower production until the third quarter of this year.

But because the glut is so gargantuan, and because storage is set to run low at current prices, that means that prices ultimately have to fall even further.

The U.S. rig count fell by 44 (40 oil rigs and 4 gas rigs) last week, the largest decrease in four years. Notably, the Permian basin accounted for 23 of those rigs.