世界石油储备空间濒临耗尽的边缘

据能源世界网3月28日报道，据一位行业顾问称，世界将在短短三个月内耗尽石油储备空间。

市场研究机构IHS Markit表示，当前的供求率意味着库存量将在今年上半年增加18亿桶。由于目前估计尚有16亿桶的储存能力，生产商将被迫减产，因为到6月，多余的原油将无处可放。

由于疫情影响造成的需求下降，石油市场受到了沉重的打击，在沙特与俄就石油减产问题谈判破裂后，沙特发誓以大幅折扣的价格向市场注入原油。巴基斯坦周四禁止进口原油和燃料，因为其储存场所已满。世界上顶级的两家贸易商Vitol和Gunvor集团表示，他们对储存石油有很大的兴趣，而且有几家贸易商已经预订了超级油轮在海上囤积石油。

IHS称，第二季度日供应可能超过需求1240万桶，其他交易员、银行和顾问也预测会出现巨额盈余。Vitol周三表示，需求比去年下降了多达2000万桶。

IHS石油市场主管吉姆·伯克哈德（Jim Burkhard）表示，生产将不得不减少甚至关闭。

目前的价格已经有迹象表明潜在的存储空间不足。在美国，所谓的WTI现金交易量跌至2008年12月以来的最低水平,预计在未来几周和几个月内，美国期货交付点的库存将激增。

布伦特原油期货交易深入到一个期货溢价状态中，即现货价格低于以后几个月的期货价格。当市场试图通过对短期价格施压来创造必要的金融手段激励储存原油时，现货价格在未来几个月内与那些价格相折扣。因为市场试图通过对短期价格施加压力来创造必要的财务激励措施来进行存储。

对现货市场实际原油桶数的衡量也显示出全球疲软。

IHS表示，世界三大产油国中，俄罗斯拥有最少的存储空间，约8天的量。沙特有18天，美国有30天。 这些数字是基于如果出口减少后可以储存的产量。

非洲最大的生产国尼日利亚，在IHS衡量的地区中存储空间最少。IHS表示，估计今年年第一季度的日产量为190万桶，将在1/2至2天内填满当地可用的存储空间。

咨询顾问Energy Aspects Ltd.也预计在接下来的几个月中会填满储罐。

该公司表示，随着欧佩克将产量推高至纪录高位，库存将很快失去控制。我们将在今年第三季度耗尽原油储存空间，将要更早实施产量遏制。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

The World’s on the brink of running out of places to store oil

The world will run out of places to store oil in as little as three months, according to an industry consultant.

IHS Markit said that current rates of supply and demand mean inventories will increase by 1.8 billion barrels over the first half of 2020. With only an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of storage capacity still available, producers will be forced to cut output because by June there’ll be no place left to put the unwanted crude, it said.

The oil market has been hammered by falling demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and as Saudi Arabia vows to flood the market with crude at deep discounts, following the collapse of the coalition of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. On Thursday, Pakistan banned imports of crude and fuels because its storage sites are full. Vitol Group and Gunvor Group, two of the world’s top merchants, say there’s heavy interest in storing while several traders have booked supertankers to hoard barrels at sea.

Supply may exceed demand by 12.4 million barrels a day in the second quarter, with other traders, banks and consultants also forecasting bumper surpluses, IHS said. Vitol said on Wednesday that demand has fallen as much as 20 million barrels a day from last year.

“Production is going to have to be reduced or even shut in,” said Jim Burkhard, head of oil markets at IHS.

There are already signs in prices about a potential scarcity of storage space. In the U.S, the so-called WTI cash roll traded down at the lowest level since December 2008 on expectations that inventories at the delivery point for US futures would balloon in coming weeks and months.

Brent futures are trading deep in a contango structure where spot prices are at discount to those in later months as the market tries to create the necessary financial incentives to store by pressuring near-term prices.

Measures of the physical market for actual barrels of crude are also pointing to weakness globally.

Of the world’s three largest oil producers, Russia has the least amount of available storage capacity at about eight days, IHS said. Those figures are based on the amount of production that could be stored if exports dried up. Saudi Arabia has 18 days, and the US has 30.

Nigeria, the biggest producer in Africa, is the most vulnerable among the areas measured by IHS. Estimated first-quarter 2020 daily production of 1.9 million barrels a day would fill up available local storage in 1/2 to two days, the firm said.

Consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. also sees storage tanks filling in the coming months.

“With OPEC pushing output to record highs, inventories will quickly get out of hand,” the firm said in a note. “We will run out of crude storage capacity by early Q3 20, with product containment arriving earlier.”